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Cubs CHC

202678–60 (0.565)
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President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins · partial season

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2026, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$225M
Surplus $M
-13
Win %
0.565
TAB
+5.5
WAB
+4.6
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
43.8
Dead money %
29%
Depth Players
7.0
Dead WAR
-4.5
Farm System
Total Proj. WAR
48.7
Pitching Proj. WAR
22.7
Hitting Proj. WAR
26.0

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2026 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

RCarson Kelly89
RMiguel Amaya61

1B

LMichael Busch136
RCarson Kelly4
Pedro Ramírez4
RMatt Shaw2
RMiguel Amaya1

2B

RNico Hoerner113
Pedro Ramírez27
RMatt Shaw8
James Triantos5
RGabriel Arias⇄1
ROwen Miller1
RScott Kingery1

3B

RAlex Bregman125
Pedro Ramírez13
RMatt Shaw5
LNicky Lopez⇄2
RScott Kingery1

SS

RDansby Swanson117
RNico Hoerner27
RScott Kingery4
RGabriel Arias⇄3

LF

BIan Happ128
LMichael Conforto13
RTyrone Taylor⇄7
RKevin Alcántara6
RMatt Shaw2
BDylan Carlson1
RJustin Dean1
Pedro Ramírez1

CF

LPete Crow-Armstrong134
RJustin Dean7
RTyrone Taylor⇄6
RKevin Alcántara3
RMatt Shaw1

RF

RSeiya Suzuki92
LMichael Conforto30
RMatt Shaw27
RJustin Dean8
RTyrone Taylor⇄4
RKevin Alcántara2
BDylan Carlson1

DH

LMoisés Ballesteros⇄59
LMichael Conforto35
RSeiya Suzuki27
Pedro Ramírez12
RMatt Shaw12
RAlex Bregman11
RMiguel Amaya10
RKevin Alcántara9
RCarson Kelly6
BIan Happ4
LPete Crow-Armstrong4
RScott Kingery2
BDylan Carlson1
James Triantos1
RJustin Dean1
RDansby Swanson1
RTyrone Taylor⇄1

Starters

RBen Brown2.0 WAR
LShota Imanaga1.0 WAR
LMatthew Boyd0.7 WAR
RClay Holmes⇄0.6 WAR
LDavid Peterson⇄0.5 WAR
RColin Rea0.4 WAR
RKevin Gausman⇄0.4 WAR
LJordan Wicks0.2 WAR
LRiley Martin0.2 WAR
LRyan Rolison0.1 WAR
REdward Cabrera0.1 WAR
RCade Horton0.0 WAR
RJavier Assad-0.2 WAR
RJameson Taillon⇄-1.1 WAR

Bullpen

★ RJacob Webb9 sv
LRyan Rolison7 h
LCaleb Thielbar7 h
LHoby Milner6 h
RTrent Thornton5 h
RPhil Maton5 h
REthan Roberts0 h
RDaniel Palencia0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Alex Bregman4.2
Tyrone Taylor0.9
Michael Conforto0.8
Clay Holmes0.6
David Peterson0.5
Jacob Webb0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Kyle Tucker4.5
Brad Keller1.3
Reese McGuire0.7
Andrew Kittredge0.6
Ryan Brasier0.3
Tom Cosgrove0.1

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Cubs. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2026; everyone else is shown as a 2026 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2026 +10.9 +179.2 0.9 +178.3 $0.1M 2.05× Pre-arb extension · 2027–2032 · $19.2M AAV
Seiya Suzuki 2022–2026 +16.0 +199.0 85.0 +114.0 $5.3M 1.55× Free agent · 2022–2026 · $17.0M AAV
Dansby Swanson 2023–2026 +16.5 +173.8 96.0 +77.8 $5.8M 1.32× Free Agent · 2023–2029 · $25.3M AAV
Ian Happ 2024–2026 +9.3 +119.0 61.0 +58.0 $6.6M 1.60× Extension · 2024–2026 · $20.3M AAV
Alex Bregman 2026 +4.9 +49.0 20.0 +29.0 $4.1M 1.25× Free Agent · 2026–2030 · $35.0M AAV
Ben Brown 2026 +2.4 +18.5 0.8 +17.7 $0.3M 0.98× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Michael Busch 2026 +2.3 +14.9 0.9 +14.1 $0.4M 0.81× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.9M AAV
Nico Hoerner 2026 +3.0 +25.8 12.0 +13.8 $4.0M 1.07× Extension · 2027–2032 · $23.5M AAV
Carson Kelly 2026 +2.1 +12.5 5.0 +7.5 $2.4M 0.76× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $5.8M AAV
Tyrone Taylor↔ 2026 +1.0 +6.7 0.8 +5.9 $0.8M 0.83× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $3.8M AAV
Jacob Webb 2026 +0.6 +6.3 1.5 +4.8 $2.5M 1.34× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $1.5M AAV
Matt Shaw 2026 +0.8 +5.4 0.8 +4.6 $1.0M 0.83× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Miguel Amaya 2026 +1.3 +5.4 0.8 +4.6 $0.6M 0.52× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Michael Conforto 2026 +0.9 +5.0 2.0 +3.0 $2.2M 0.69× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $2.0M AAV
David Peterson↔ 2026 +0.6 +4.9 3.3 +1.6 $5.5M 1.02× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $8.1M AAV
Jordan Wicks 2026 +0.2 +1.9 0.5 +1.4 $2.3M 1.02× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Clay Holmes↔ 2026 +0.7 +5.8 4.6 +1.2 $6.5M 1.02× Free Agent · 2025–2027 · $12.7M AAV
Justin Dean 2026 +0.3 +1.7 0.8 +0.9 $3.2M 0.83× –
Riley Martin 2026 +0.2 +1.2 0.7 +0.4 $3.4M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Ty Blach 2026 +0.1 +0.3 0.0 +0.3 $0.2M 0.67× –
Vince Velasquez 2026 +0.1 +0.3 0.0 +0.3 $0.5M 0.67× –
Ryan Rolison 2026 +0.2 +0.9 0.7 +0.2 $4.3M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Yacksel Ríos 2026 +0.0 +0.2 0.0 +0.2 $0.7M 0.67× –
Aaron Civale↔ 2026 +0.4 +2.3 2.4 -0.1 $5.7M 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $6.0M AAV
Gabriel Arias↔ 2026 -0.0 -0.0 0.1 -0.1 – 0.61× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Charlie Barnes↔ 2026 -0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 – 0.67× –
Jake Woodford↔ 2026 -0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 – 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $1.0M AAV
Kevin Gausman↔ 2026 +0.5 +3.8 4.1 -0.3 $8.9M 1.02× Free Agent · 2022–2026 · $22.0M AAV
Luke Little 2026 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 – 0.67× –
Tyler Ferguson↔ 2026 +0.1 +0.3 0.7 -0.4 $13.0M 0.67× –
Cade Horton 2026 +0.0 +0.4 0.8 -0.5 $18.9M 1.02× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Nicky Lopez↔ 2026 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 – 0.58× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Gavin Hollowell 2026 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 – 0.67× –
Jayden Murray↔ 2026 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 – 0.67× –
Moisés Ballesteros↔ 2026 -0.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 – 0.69× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Corbin Martin 2026 -0.3 -1.5 0.1 -1.5 – 0.67× –
Ryan Zeferjahn↔ 2026 -0.1 -1.5 0.1 -1.6 – 1.34× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Colin Rea 2026 +0.5 +3.8 5.5 -1.7 $11.8M 1.02× Extension · 2027–2027 · $6.5M AAV
Ethan Roberts 2026 -0.2 -1.2 0.7 -1.9 – 0.67× –
Kevin Alcántara 2026 -0.3 -1.4 0.5 -1.9 – 0.69× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Scott Kingery 2026 -0.2 -0.8 1.2 -2.1 – 0.69× –
Drew Pomeranz↔ 2026 -0.3 -1.6 0.8 -2.4 – 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $4.0M AAV
Dylan Carlson 2026 -0.2 -1.0 2.0 -3.0 – 0.69× –
Javier Assad 2026 -0.2 -1.2 1.8 -3.0 – 0.67× –
Edward Cabrera 2026 +0.1 +0.6 4.5 -3.9 $62.7M 1.02× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $4.5M AAV
Hoby Milner 2026 -0.1 -0.4 3.8 -4.2 – 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $3.8M AAV
Trent Thornton 2026 -0.5 -5.0 0.8 -5.8 – 1.34× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $1.0M AAV
Hunter Harvey 2026 -0.2 -1.0 5.0 -6.0 – 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $6.0M AAV
Caleb Thielbar 2026 -0.3 -3.6 4.0 -7.6 – 1.34× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $4.5M AAV
Phil Maton 2026 -0.5 -2.5 5.5 -8.0 – 0.67× Free Agent · 2026–2028 · $7.2M AAV
Matthew Boyd 2026 +0.8 +6.5 17.0 -10.5 $21.3M 1.02× Free Agent · 2026–2027 · $14.5M AAV
Shota Imanaga 2026 +1.2 +9.5 22.0 -12.5 $18.9M 1.02× Qualifying Offer · 2026–2026 · $22.0M AAV
Jameson Taillon↔ 2023–2026 +3.7 +30.0 65.9 -35.9 $17.9M 1.02× Free Agent · 2023–2026 · $17.0M AAV
Andrew Wantz↔ 2026 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 – 0.67× –
Daniel Palencia 2026 +0.2 +0.8 0.8 -0.0 $5.4M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Bryse Wilson↔ 2026 -0.1 -0.5 – – – 0.67× –
Owen Miller 2026 +0.0 +0.0 – – – 0.56× –
Total—+78.0+869.6448.9+421.0—

Trades

Every graded 2026 deal involving the Cubs — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 13 total.

2026 · CHC / MIA Aug 3, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Braxton Garrett
MIA · Peter Bendix +$0.0M
Jace Beck, Jonathon Long
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · MIA / CHC Jan 7, 2026
MIA · Peter Bendix +$0.8M
Edgardo De Leon, Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernández
CHC · Jed Hoyer −$0.8M
Edward Cabrera
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / ANA Aug 3, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$3.2M
Ryan Zeferjahn
ANA · Perry Minasian −$3.2M
Moisés Ballesteros, Mason McGwire
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / LAD Jun 7, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Antoine Kelly
LAD · Andrew Friedman +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / TOR Aug 2, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$2.4M
cash / PTBNL
TOR · Ross Atkins −$2.4M
Jameson Taillon
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / NYM Jun 25, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$3.2M
David Peterson
NYM · David Stearns −$3.2M
Cole Mathis
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · HOU / CHC Jun 20, 2026
HOU · Dana Brown +$0.8M
Cameron Sisneros
CHC · Jed Hoyer −$0.8M
Jayden Murray
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · COL / CHC Apr 23, 2026
COL · Josh Byrnes +$0.8M
cash / PTBNL
CHC · Jed Hoyer −$0.8M
Nicky Lopez
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / OAK May 7, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Tyler Ferguson
OAK · David Forst +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / TOR Aug 2, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Kevin Gausman
TOR · Ross Atkins +$0.0M
Brett Bateman, Ty Southisene
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / OAK Jul 18, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$2.4M
Aaron Civale
OAK · David Forst −$2.4M
Aiden Moffett
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / SEA Jun 15, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Yosver Zulueta
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · CHC / NYM Aug 3, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$8.8M
Clay Holmes, Tyrone Taylor
NYM · David Stearns −$8.8M
Jefferson Rojas#68.7
Too soon to call unsettled

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$224.6M
luxury tax $222M
2027 guaranteed
$151.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$188M$123M$84M$77M$52M$19M
Proj. arbitration$14M
Proj. pre-arbitration$20M$23M$23M$23M$23M$23M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$240M$164M$125M$118M$92M$60M
Tax space+$4M+$83M+$125M+$135M+$164M+$199M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Dansby Swanson329.047$28.0M$28.0M$27.0M$26.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Bregman329.070$20.0M$25.0M$25.0M$20.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Happ318.036$19.0MFREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd359.057$17.0M$15.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Jameson Taillon349.110$15.9MFREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner296.014$12.0M$23.0M$23.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Colin Rea356.057$5.5M$7.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Phil Maton338.047$5.5M$6.0M$8.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Carson Kelly317.161$5.0M$7.5MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey316.047$5.0M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Clay Holmes337.031$4.6M$12.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman3511.151$4.1MFREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar397.131$4.0M$6.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Hoby Milner356.068$3.8MFREE AGENT
Aaron Civale316.058$2.4MFREE AGENT
Michael Conforto339.043$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jacob Webb325.046$1.5M$2.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Pete Crow-Armstrong241.170$894k$10.8M$10.8M$10.8M$20.8M$30.8MFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz3712.008$774kFREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez349.086$27kFREE AGENT
Nicky Lopez316.021$26kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Seiya Suzuki314.000$19.0MFREE AGENT
Edward Cabrera283.147$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Peterson305.089$3.3MFREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson275.067$2.0MFREE AGENT
Javier Assad283.027$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Kingery323.108$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyrone Taylor325.093$805kFREE AGENT
Trent Thornton325.148$770kFREE AGENT
Jake Woodford294.008$111kFREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos333.020$29kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Blach354.074$9kARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Wantz303.148$4kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson285.036—FREE AGENT
Owen Miller293.108—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Shota Imanaga322.000$22.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Busch282.045$860kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Dean290.052$820kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Horton240.142$818kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Amaya272.130$808kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Palencia261.154$808kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Shaw240.162$804kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Brown261.169$800kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Roberts282.131$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Ferguson321.089$734kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Martin28–$730k
Ryan Rolison282.114$692kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Ballesteros220.030$560kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Wicks261.070$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Alcántara230.033$530kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Zeferjahn281.038$142kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Martin302.146$81kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Arias262.124$67kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Little251.024$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayden Murray290.026$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Hollowell280.110$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Barnes300.037$2kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2026 acquisition stacked onto Cubs's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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