RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.34× league · TAB -1.8
-1.8TAB — talent above budget
+4.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
30%dead money %7th/30
0.557win %5th/30
36.1roster fWAR11th/30
+28surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$212Mpayroll $M8th/30luxury tax $221M

Roster

CFPete Crow-Armstrong 69GKevin Alcántara 2GMatt Shaw 1G
LFIan Happ 62GMichael Conforto 9GKevin Alcántara 1G
RFSeiya Suzuki 48GMatt Shaw 14GMichael Conforto 10G
SSDansby Swanson 63GNico Hoerner 8G
2BNico Hoerner 61GMatt Shaw 7GPedro Ramírez 6G
3BAlex Bregman 65GMatt Shaw 5GPedro Ramírez 2G
1BMichael Busch 68GCarson Kelly 3GMatt Shaw 2G
STARTERSBen Brown 2.0WARShota Imanaga 1.0WARMatthew Boyd 1.0WARColin Rea 0.3WAREdward Cabrera 0.2WAR
CCarson Kelly 43GMiguel Amaya 28GMoisés Ballesteros 6G
DHMoisés Ballesteros 45GMichael Conforto 17GMatt Shaw 11G
BULLPEN★ Jacob Webb 1svHoby Milner 5hPhil Maton 5hCaleb Thielbar 3hRyan Rolison 0hDaniel Palencia 0hEthan Roberts 0hTrent Thornton 0h
CCarson Kelly 43 · Miguel Amaya 28 · Moisés Ballesteros 6
1BMichael Busch 68 · Carson Kelly 3 · Matt Shaw 2
2BNico Hoerner 61 · Matt Shaw 7 · Pedro Ramírez 6
3BAlex Bregman 65 · Matt Shaw 5 · Pedro Ramírez 2
SSDansby Swanson 63 · Nico Hoerner 8
LFIan Happ 62 · Michael Conforto 9 · Kevin Alcántara 1
CFPete Crow-Armstrong 69 · Kevin Alcántara 2 · Matt Shaw 1
RFSeiya Suzuki 48 · Matt Shaw 14 · Michael Conforto 10
DHMoisés Ballesteros 45 · Michael Conforto 17 · Matt Shaw 11
SPBen Brown 2.0 · Shota Imanaga 1.0 · Matthew Boyd 1.0 · Colin Rea 0.3 · Edward Cabrera 0.2
BP★ Jacob Webb 1 · Hoby Milner 5 · Phil Maton 5 · Caleb Thielbar 3 · Ryan Rolison 0 · Daniel Palencia 0 · Ethan Roberts 0 · Trent Thornton 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2026 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Pete Crow-Armstrong 24 pre-arb 9710.0 0.9 +65.1
Dansby Swanson 32 FA-elig 933.9 28.0 -2.5
Ben Brown 26 pre-arb 203.4 0.8 +21.8
Seiya Suzuki 31 arb 813.3 19.0 +3.1
Michael Busch 28 pre-arb 962.9 0.9 +18.1
Ian Happ 31 FA-elig 932.9 19.0 -0.1
Alex Bregman 32 FA-elig 952.8 20.0 -1.4
Nico Hoerner 29 FA-elig 952.0 12.0 +1.3
Carson Kelly 31 FA-elig 711.7 5.0 +6.3
Shota Imanaga 32 pre-arb 191.7 22.0 -10.9
Matthew Boyd 35 FA-elig 91.6 17.0 -6.3
Miguel Amaya 27 pre-arb 521.5 0.8 +9.0
Michael Conforto 33 FA-elig 630.9 2.0 +3.8
Matt Shaw 24 pre-arb 560.8 0.8 +4.6
Colin Rea 35 FA-elig 200.6 5.5 -1.7
Jacob Webb 32 arb 420.5 1.5 +1.8
Daniel Palencia 26 pre-arb 190.4 0.8 +1.7
Ryan Rolison 28 pre-arb 330.4 0.7 +1.8
Edward Cabrera 28 arb 140.4 4.5 -2.1
Jordan Wicks 26 pre-arb 40.3 0.5 +1.7
Riley Martin 28 – 80.3 0.7 +1.3
Justin Dean 29 pre-arb 100.2 0.8 +0.3
Pedro Ramírez 22 – 260.2 0.5 +0.6
Vince Velasquez 34 – 20.1 0.0 +0.5
Ty Blach 35 arb 10.1 0.0 +0.5
Cade Horton 24 pre-arb 20.1 0.8 -0.4
Tyler Ferguson↔ OAK 32 pre-arb 100.1 0.7 -0.3
Yacksel Ríos 33 arb 10.1 0.0 +0.4
Charlie Barnes↔ LAD 30 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Jake Woodford↔ MIL 29 – 1-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Hoby Milner 35 FA-elig 38-0.1 3.8 -4.3
Moisés Ballesteros 22 pre-arb 59-0.1 0.8 -1.3
Luke Little 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Bryse Wilson↔ MIL 28 – 2-0.1 – –
Jayden Murray↔ HOU 29 – 2-0.2 0.0 -1.2
Nicky Lopez↔ TEX 31 – 4-0.2 0.0 -1.3
Scott Kingery 32 arb 8-0.2 1.2 -2.7
Dylan Carlson 27 arb 3-0.3 2.0 -3.7
Hunter Harvey 31 FA-elig 4-0.3 5.0 -6.8
David Peterson↔ NYM 30 – 3-0.3 1.3 -3.1
Gavin Hollowell 28 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.0 -1.9
Ethan Roberts 28 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.7 -2.7
Javier Assad 28 arb 15-0.4 1.8 -4.3
Corbin Martin 30 pre-arb 7-0.4 0.1 -2.6
Drew Pomeranz↔ ANA 37 – 5-0.4 0.7 -3.5
Kevin Alcántara 23 pre-arb 17-0.4 0.5 -3.4
Trent Thornton 32 arb 25-0.5 0.8 -3.9
Caleb Thielbar 39 FA-elig 32-0.5 4.0 -7.4
Phil Maton 33 FA-elig 30-0.6 5.5 -9.5
Jameson Taillon 34 FA-elig 13-1.1 18.0 -25.2

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Alex Bregman1.7
Michael Conforto0.5
Jacob Webb0.3
Ryan Rolison0.2
Edward Cabrera0.2
Riley Martin0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Kyle Tucker4.5
Brad Keller1.3
Reese McGuire0.7
Andrew Kittredge0.6
Ryan Brasier0.3
Tom Cosgrove0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$211.7M
luxury tax $221M
2027 guaranteed
$139.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$187M$104M$65M$58M$32M
Proj. arbitration$14M
Proj. pre-arbitration$20M$23M$23M$23M$23M$23M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$239M$145M$106M$99M$73M$41M
Tax space+$5M+$102M+$144M+$154M+$183M+$218M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Dansby Swanson329.047$28.0M$28.0M$27.0M$26.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Bregman329.070$20.0M$25.0M$25.0M$20.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Happ318.036$19.0MFREE AGENT
Jameson Taillon349.110$18.0MFREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd359.057$17.0M$15.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner296.014$12.0M$23.0M$23.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Colin Rea356.057$5.5M$7.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Phil Maton338.047$5.5M$6.0M$8.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey316.047$5.0M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Carson Kelly317.161$5.0M$7.5MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar397.131$4.0M$6.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Hoby Milner356.068$3.8MFREE AGENT
Michael Conforto339.043$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jacob Webb325.046$1.5M$2.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Pete Crow-Armstrong241.170$894k$10.8M$10.8M$10.8M$20.8M$30.8MFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz3712.008$667kFREE AGENT
Nicky Lopez316.021$47kFREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez349.086$27kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Seiya Suzuki314.000$19.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Edward Cabrera283.147$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson275.067$2.0MFREE AGENT
Javier Assad283.027$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Peterson305.089$1.3MFREE AGENT
Scott Kingery323.108$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton325.148$770kFREE AGENT
Jake Woodford294.008$59kARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos333.020$29kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Blach354.074$9kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson285.036—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Shota Imanaga322.000$22.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Busch282.045$860kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Dean290.052$820kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Horton240.142$818kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Amaya272.130$808kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Palencia261.154$808kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Shaw240.162$804kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Brown261.169$800kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Ballesteros220.030$788kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Roberts282.131$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Martin28–$730k
Tyler Ferguson321.089$709kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Rolison282.114$692kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Wicks261.070$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Alcántara230.033$530kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Martin302.146$81kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Little251.024$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayden Murray290.026$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Hollowell280.110$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Barnes300.037$2kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2026; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.