RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.0× league · TAB -8.2
-8.2TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-7.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
46%dead money %23rd/30
0.457win %19th/30
26.1roster fWAR21st/30
-47surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$143Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFRafael Ortega 67GChristopher Morel 57GNelson Velázquez 32G
LFIan Happ 146GNelson Velázquez 14GRafael Ortega 11G
RFSeiya Suzuki 106GNelson Velázquez 23GJason Heyward 21G
SSNico Hoerner 133GAndrelton Simmons 18GChristopher Morel 13G
2BNick Madrigal 59GChristopher Morel 33GJonathan Villar 29G
3BPatrick Wisdom 105GZach McKinstry 22GChristopher Morel 18G
1BAlfonso Rivas III 92GFrank Schwindel 48GP.J. Higgins 38G
STARTERSJustin Steele 2.5WARMarcus Stroman 2.0WARAdrian Sampson 1.4WARDrew Smyly 1.2WARKeegan Thompson 0.8WAR
CWillson Contreras 72GYan Gomes 69GP.J. Higgins 34G
DHFranmil Reyes 100GWillson Contreras 39GFrank Schwindel 26G
BULLPEN★ Rowan Wick 9svBrandon Hughes 8hMichael Rucker 5hMark Leiter Jr. 4hErich Uelmen 3hSean Newcomb 2hManuel Rodríguez 2hKervin Castro 0h
CWillson Contreras 72 · Yan Gomes 69 · P.J. Higgins 34
1BAlfonso Rivas III 92 · Frank Schwindel 48 · P.J. Higgins 38
2BNick Madrigal 59 · Christopher Morel 33 · Jonathan Villar 29
3BPatrick Wisdom 105 · Zach McKinstry 22 · Christopher Morel 18
SSNico Hoerner 133 · Andrelton Simmons 18 · Christopher Morel 13
LFIan Happ 146 · Nelson Velázquez 14 · Rafael Ortega 11
CFRafael Ortega 67 · Christopher Morel 57 · Nelson Velázquez 32
RFSeiya Suzuki 106 · Nelson Velázquez 23 · Jason Heyward 21
DHFranmil Reyes 100 · Willson Contreras 39 · Frank Schwindel 26
SPJustin Steele 2.5 · Marcus Stroman 2.0 · Adrian Sampson 1.4 · Drew Smyly 1.2 · Keegan Thompson 0.8
BP★ Rowan Wick 9 · Brandon Hughes 8 · Michael Rucker 5 · Mark Leiter Jr. 4 · Erich Uelmen 3 · Sean Newcomb 2 · Manuel Rodríguez 2 · Kervin Castro 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nico Hoerner 25 pre-arb 1354.3 0.7 +15.0
Ian Happ 27 arb 1583.7 6.8 +6.7
Willson Contreras 30 FA-elig 1133.5 9.6 +3.2
Justin Steele 26 pre-arb 242.5 0.7 +8.6
Seiya Suzuki 27 pre-arb 1112.0 8.0 -0.8
Marcus Stroman 31 FA-elig 252.0 25.0 -17.8
Christopher Morel 23 – 1131.7 0.5 +5.6
Adrian Sampson 30 FA-elig 211.4 0.1 +5.0
Patrick Wisdom 30 pre-arb 1341.2 0.7 +3.8
Drew Smyly 33 FA-elig 221.2 4.2 +0.2
Scott Effross↔ NYY 28 – 471.2 0.4 +4.0
Yan Gomes 34 FA-elig 860.9 6.0 -2.9
Zach McKinstry↔ LAD 27 pre-arb 470.8 0.2 +2.7
Keegan Thompson 27 pre-arb 290.8 0.7 +2.1
Rafael Ortega 31 pre-arb 1180.7 0.7 +1.9
Hayden Wesneski 24 – 60.7 0.1 +2.4
David Bote 29 arb 410.5 2.5 -0.6
Wade Miley 35 FA-elig 90.5 10.0 -8.1
Adbert Alzolay 27 pre-arb 60.5 0.7 +1.1
David Robertson↔ PHI 37 FA-elig 360.4 2.2 -0.5
Chris Martin↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 340.4 1.4 +0.1
Javier Assad 24 – 90.4 0.7 +0.7
P.J. Higgins 29 pre-arb 740.3 0.5 +0.8
Nick Madrigal 25 pre-arb 590.3 0.7 +0.4
Kyle Hendricks 32 FA-elig 160.3 14.0 -12.9
Mark Leiter Jr. 31 – 350.2 0.5 +0.3
Mychal Givens↔ NYM 32 FA-elig 400.2 2.4 -1.6
Nelson Velázquez 23 – 770.2 0.4 +0.3
Esteban Quiroz 30 – 140.2 0.1 +0.5
Steven Brault 30 arb 90.1 0.7 -0.3
Jared Young 26 – 60.1 0.0 +0.2
Ildemaro Vargas↔ WSN 30 arb 100.0 0.0 +0.1
Michael Rucker 28 pre-arb 410.0 0.5 -0.5
Luke Farrell↔ CIN 31 – 40.0 0.0 -0.0
Rowan Wick 29 pre-arb 640.0 0.7 -0.7
Eric Stout↔ PIT 29 – 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Conner Menez 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Caleb Kilian 25 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jeremiah Estrada 23 – 5-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Robert Gsellman 28 FA-elig 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Matt Dermody 31 – 1-0.0 – –
Nicholas Padilla 25 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Narciso Crook 26 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Franmil Reyes↔ CLE 26 arb 48-0.1 1.9 -2.1
Jesse Chavez↔ ANA 38 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Locke St. John 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Clint Frazier 27 arb 19-0.1 1.5 -1.9
Alfonso Rivas III 25 – 101-0.1 – –
Andrelton Simmons 32 FA-elig 35-0.2 4.0 -4.7
Manuel Rodríguez 25 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Michael Hermosillo 27 arb 31-0.2 0.6 -1.5
Brendon Little 25 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.9
Erich Uelmen 26 – 25-0.2 0.3 -1.2
Kervin Castro↔ SFG 23 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Jason Heyward 32 FA-elig 48-0.3 22.0 -23.0
Brandon Hughes 26 – 57-0.3 0.5 -1.8
Ethan Roberts 24 – 9-0.3 0.7 -2.0
Daniel Norris↔ DET 29 FA-elig 27-0.4 1.2 -2.5
Anderson Espinoza 24 pre-arb 7-0.5 0.1 -1.9
Alec Mills 30 pre-arb 7-0.6 0.7 -2.9
Jonathan Villar↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 46-0.6 4.7 -6.9
Frank Schwindel 30 – 75-0.7 0.5 -2.9
Sean Newcomb↔ ATL 29 arb 17-0.7 0.8 -3.2
Matt Swarmer 28 – 11-0.8 0.2 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Seiya Suzuki2.0
Marcus Stroman2.0
Christopher Morel1.7
Drew Smyly1.2
Yan Gomes0.9
Zach McKinstry0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Kris Bryant2.6
Craig Kimbrel2.1
Javier Báez2.1
Anthony Rizzo1.7
Matt Duffy1.2
Ryan Tepera1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$143.3M
2023 guaranteed
$18.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Marcus Stroman317.026$25.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward3212.000$22.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks327.081$14.0MFREE AGENT
Wade Miley3510.025$10.0MFREE AGENT
Seiya Suzuki270.000$8.0M$18.0M$21.0M$19.0M$19.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes349.083$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar319.000$4.7MFREE AGENT
Drew Smyly339.143$4.2MFREE AGENT
Andrelton Simmons3210.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Mychal Givens326.069$2.4MFREE AGENT
David Robertson3712.104$2.2MFREE AGENT
Daniel Norris296.073$1.2MFREE AGENT
Robert Gsellman286.000$100kFREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez3814.000$35kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Willson Contreras305.108$9.6MFREE AGENT
Ian Happ274.036$6.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bote293.100$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franmil Reyes263.115$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Frazier273.149$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Martin364.133$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb293.121$765kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Brault304.085$668kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Leiter Jr.315.000$458kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (41)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Alec Mills302.097$741kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Ortega311.145$738kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom301.058$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowan Wick292.114$724kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner252.014$720kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adbert Alzolay271.050$718kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Madrigal251.164$716kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Thompson270.131$706kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Steele260.143$705kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Roberts240.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Assad240.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Hermosillo271.064$600kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Rucker280.066$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christopher Morel230.000$542kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Hughes260.000$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Higgins290.138$523kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Schwindel301.015$496kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Rodríguez250.074$485kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Velázquez230.000$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Effross280.037$353kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erich Uelmen260.000$308kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McKinstry270.148$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Swarmer28–$173k
Hayden Wesneski240.000$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Espinoza241.000$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Sampson302.009$100kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Estrada230.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esteban Quiroz30–$69k
Kervin Castro230.028$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Young260.000$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Farrell312.108$36kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conner Menez271.092$31kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Kilian250.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Stout290.008$20kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Narciso Crook26–$19k
Ildemaro Vargas302.097$16kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendon Little250.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Locke St. John29–$8k
Nicholas Padilla250.000$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dermody310.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfonso Rivas III25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.