CHC⇄NYY

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2022 odds 2% → 3% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hayden WesneskiP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#195 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2022 odds 96% → 96% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott EffrossP·28y·R/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#443 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.63 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.