RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.04× league · TAB +6.7
+6.7TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+0.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-3.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
17%dead money %4th/30
0.512win %14th/30
41.4roster fWAR12th/30
+5surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$159Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFCody Bellinger 84GMike Tauchman 81GPete Crow-Armstrong 13G
LFIan Happ 154GChristopher Morel 8GPatrick Wisdom 5G
RFSeiya Suzuki 132GMike Tauchman 10GChristopher Morel 8G
SSDansby Swanson 147GNico Hoerner 20GMiles Mastrobuoni 4G
2BNico Hoerner 135GChristopher Morel 19GNick Madrigal 14G
3BJeimer Candelario 115GNick Madrigal 72GPatrick Wisdom 61G
1BCody Bellinger 59GTrey Mancini 51GMatt Mervis 27G
STARTERSJustin Steele 4.8WARKyle Hendricks 2.7WARMarcus Stroman 2.7WARJameson Taillon 1.5WARJavier Assad 0.9WAR
CYan Gomes 103GTucker Barnhart 42GMiguel Amaya 41G
DHChristopher Morel 61GTrey Mancini 22GEric Hosmer 14G
BULLPEN★ Adbert Alzolay 22svMark Leiter Jr. 28hJulian Merryweather 17hMichael Fulmer 11hJose Cuas 10hDaniel Palencia 2hBrad Boxberger 1hMichael Rucker 0h
CYan Gomes 103 · Tucker Barnhart 42 · Miguel Amaya 41
1BCody Bellinger 59 · Trey Mancini 51 · Matt Mervis 27
2BNico Hoerner 135 · Christopher Morel 19 · Nick Madrigal 14
3BJeimer Candelario 115 · Nick Madrigal 72 · Patrick Wisdom 61
SSDansby Swanson 147 · Nico Hoerner 20 · Miles Mastrobuoni 4
LFIan Happ 154 · Christopher Morel 8 · Patrick Wisdom 5
CFCody Bellinger 84 · Mike Tauchman 81 · Pete Crow-Armstrong 13
RFSeiya Suzuki 132 · Mike Tauchman 10 · Christopher Morel 8
DHChristopher Morel 61 · Trey Mancini 22 · Eric Hosmer 14
SPJustin Steele 4.8 · Kyle Hendricks 2.7 · Marcus Stroman 2.7 · Jameson Taillon 1.5 · Javier Assad 0.9
BP★ Adbert Alzolay 22 · Mark Leiter Jr. 28 · Julian Merryweather 17 · Michael Fulmer 11 · Jose Cuas 10 · Daniel Palencia 2 · Brad Boxberger 1 · Michael Rucker 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dansby Swanson 29 FA-elig 1474.8 14.0 +5.2
Justin Steele 27 pre-arb 304.8 0.7 +18.4
Nico Hoerner 26 arb 1504.5 2.5 +15.2
Cody Bellinger 27 FA-elig 1304.4 12.5 +4.8
Ian Happ 28 FA-elig 1583.2 10.8 +2.0
Seiya Suzuki 28 pre-arb 1383.1 18.0 -5.9
Kyle Hendricks 33 FA-elig 242.7 14.0 -3.2
Marcus Stroman 32 FA-elig 272.7 25.0 -14.3
Mike Tauchman 32 arb 1081.7 0.5 +6.1
Christopher Morel 24 pre-arb 1071.6 0.6 +5.8
Jameson Taillon 31 FA-elig 301.5 14.0 -7.9
Adbert Alzolay 28 arb 581.5 0.7 +5.2
Nick Madrigal 26 arb 921.2 1.2 +3.4
Yan Gomes 35 FA-elig 1161.0 6.0 -2.0
Drew Smyly 34 FA-elig 410.9 8.0 -4.4
Javier Assad 25 pre-arb 320.9 0.7 +2.8
Julian Merryweather 31 arb 690.9 0.7 +2.7
Miguel Amaya 24 – 530.7 0.5 +2.1
Patrick Wisdom 31 arb 970.6 0.8 +1.8
Mark Leiter Jr. 32 FA-elig 690.6 0.8 +1.6
Michael Fulmer 30 FA-elig 580.4 4.0 -2.4
Jordan Wicks 23 – 70.3 0.1 +0.9
Daniel Palencia 23 – 270.3 0.3 +0.7
Tucker Barnhart 32 FA-elig 470.2 3.2 -2.4
Jeimer Candelario↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 410.2 1.5 -0.7
Nelson Velázquez↔ KCR 24 – 130.2 0.1 +0.5
Luke Little 22 – 70.1 0.5 +0.0
Keegan Thompson 28 pre-arb 190.1 0.7 -0.5
Miles Mastrobuoni 27 pre-arb 610.0 0.7 -0.6
Shane Greene 34 FA-elig 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Alexander Canario 23 – 60.0 0.1 -0.0
Nick Burdi 30 arb 30.0 0.5 -0.5
Caleb Kilian 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Tyler Duffey 32 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Brandon Hughes 27 pre-arb 17-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Anthony Kay↔ NYM 28 – 13-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Michael Rucker 29 pre-arb 35-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Jose Cuas↔ KCR 29 pre-arb 27-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Luis Torrens↔ SEA 27 FA-elig 13-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Jared Young 27 pre-arb 16-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Brad Boxberger 35 FA-elig 22-0.2 2.0 -2.7
Pete Crow-Armstrong 21 – 13-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Edwin Rios 29 arb 18-0.3 1.0 -2.1
Eric Hosmer 33 FA-elig 31-0.3 0.7 -1.9
Hayden Wesneski 25 pre-arb 34-0.3 0.7 -2.1
Jeremiah Estrada 24 pre-arb 12-0.4 0.2 -1.9
Matt Mervis 25 – 27-0.7 0.2 -2.8
Trey Mancini 31 FA-elig 79-0.8 7.0 -10.1

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Dansby Swanson4.8
Cody Bellinger4.4
Mike Tauchman1.7
Jameson Taillon1.5
Julian Merryweather0.9
Miguel Amaya0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Willson Contreras3.5
Scott Effross1.2
Zach McKinstry0.8
Rafael Ortega0.7
Wade Miley0.5
David Robertson0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$159.1M
2024 guaranteed
$65.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Marcus Stroman328.026$25.0MFREE AGENT
Seiya Suzuki281.000$18.0M$21.0M$19.0M$19.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson296.047$14.0M$26.0M$28.0M$28.0M$28.0M$27.0M$26.0M
Kyle Hendricks338.081$14.0MFREE AGENT
Jameson Taillon316.110$14.0M$18.0M$18.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Drew Smyly3410.143$8.0MFREE AGENT
Trey Mancini317.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Yan Gomes3510.083$6.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Fulmer306.157$4.0MFREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart329.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger359.033$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Leiter Jr.326.000$850kFREE AGENT
Eric Hosmer3312.000$720kFREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey326.026$100kFREE AGENT
Shane Greene347.021$27kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Cody Bellinger275.160$12.5MFREE AGENT
Ian Happ285.036$10.8MFREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner263.014$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeimer Candelario295.038$1.5MFREE AGENT
Edwin Rios293.003$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens273.091$867kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Burdi303.000$538kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Tauchman323.007$523kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Nick Madrigal262.164$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom312.058$763kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adbert Alzolay282.050$745kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Thompson281.131$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Steele271.143$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Merryweather312.109$737kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Rucker291.033$737kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Hughes270.141$728kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Wesneski250.031$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Assad250.044$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mastrobuoni270.014$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christopher Morel240.142$561kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Little220.000$542kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Amaya240.000$495kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Palencia230.000$348kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Cuas290.123$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Kay281.101$179kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Estrada240.037$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Mervis250.000$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Wicks230.000$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Young270.022$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexander Canario230.000$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Velázquez240.111$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Crow-Armstrong210.000$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Kilian260.008$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.