RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.99× league · TAB -11.4
-11.4TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-10.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-8.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
41%dead money %21st/30
0.438win %24th/30
22.7roster fWAR25th/30
-54surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$125Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFRafael Ortega 73GIan Happ 56GJohneshwy Fargas 12G
LFJoc Pederson 66GIan Happ 65GPatrick Wisdom 15G
RFJason Heyward 97GIan Happ 16GRafael Ortega 13G
SSSergio Alcántara 55GAndrew Romine 16GNico Hoerner 12G
2BDavid Bote 61GEric Sogard 43GNico Hoerner 30G
3BPatrick Wisdom 77GMatt Duffy 56GDavid Bote 24G
1BFrank Schwindel 52GPatrick Wisdom 13GKris Bryant 12G
STARTERSKyle Hendricks 1.1WARAdbert Alzolay 0.8WARAlec Mills 0.7WARZach Davies -0.0WARJustin Steele -0.2WAR
CWillson Contreras 116GRobinson Chirinos 27GAustin Romine 21G
DHFrank Schwindel 8GDavid Bote 3GRobinson Chirinos 1G
BULLPEN★ Rowan Wick 5svCodi Heuer 18hRex Brothers 8hDan Winkler 6hTommy Nance 5hAdam Morgan 4hTrevor Megill 1hDillon Maples 0h
CWillson Contreras 116 · Robinson Chirinos 27 · Austin Romine 21
1BFrank Schwindel 52 · Patrick Wisdom 13 · Kris Bryant 12
2BDavid Bote 61 · Eric Sogard 43 · Nico Hoerner 30
3BPatrick Wisdom 77 · Matt Duffy 56 · David Bote 24
SSSergio Alcántara 55 · Andrew Romine 16 · Nico Hoerner 12
LFJoc Pederson 66 · Ian Happ 65 · Patrick Wisdom 15
CFRafael Ortega 73 · Ian Happ 56 · Johneshwy Fargas 12
RFJason Heyward 97 · Ian Happ 16 · Rafael Ortega 13
DHFrank Schwindel 8 · David Bote 3 · Robinson Chirinos 1
SPKyle Hendricks 1.1 · Adbert Alzolay 0.8 · Alec Mills 0.7 · Zach Davies -0.0 · Justin Steele -0.2
BP★ Rowan Wick 5 · Codi Heuer 18 · Rex Brothers 8 · Dan Winkler 6 · Tommy Nance 5 · Adam Morgan 4 · Trevor Megill 1 · Dillon Maples 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Willson Contreras 29 arb 1282.7 6.7 +2.1
Kris Bryant↔ SFG 29 FA-elig 932.6 12.6 -4.1
Patrick Wisdom 29 pre-arb 1062.4 0.4 +7.2
Craig Kimbrel↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 392.1 9.9 -2.9
Frank Schwindel↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 562.1 0.2 +6.7
Javier Báez↔ NYM 28 FA-elig 912.1 7.6 -0.8
Anthony Rizzo↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 921.7 10.8 -5.2
Rafael Ortega 30 pre-arb 1031.6 0.4 +4.7
Nico Hoerner 24 pre-arb 441.6 0.5 +4.5
Ian Happ 26 arb 1481.5 4.1 +0.7
Matt Duffy 30 FA-elig 971.2 1.0 +2.9
Ryan Tepera↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 431.1 0.5 +3.0
Kyle Hendricks 31 FA-elig 321.1 14.0 -10.5
Sergio Alcántara 24 pre-arb 891.0 0.4 +2.7
Andrew Chafin↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 430.9 1.4 +1.7
Adbert Alzolay 26 pre-arb 300.8 0.5 +2.1
Alec Mills 29 pre-arb 330.7 0.6 +1.7
Robinson Chirinos 37 FA-elig 450.7 0.5 +1.7
Trevor Williams↔ NYM 29 arb 130.6 1.4 +0.7
Jake Marisnick↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 650.5 0.7 +1.1
Trayce Thompson 30 – 150.5 – –
Rowan Wick 28 pre-arb 220.4 0.6 +0.7
Brad Wieck 29 pre-arb 150.4 0.4 +0.8
Alfonso Rivas III 24 – 180.2 – –
Codi Heuer↔ CHW 24 – 250.2 0.1 +0.4
Michael Hermosillo 26 pre-arb 160.2 0.1 +0.4
Scott Effross 27 – 140.2 0.1 +0.4
Jason Adam 29 – 120.1 0.1 +0.3
Kohl Stewart 26 pre-arb 40.1 0.4 -0.1
Jason Heyward 31 FA-elig 1040.1 21.0 -20.8
Joe Biagini 31 arb 10.0 0.1 +0.0
Pedro Strop 36 FA-elig 20.0 0.1 -0.0
Erick Castillo 28 – 40.0 0.0 +0.0
Zach Davies 28 FA-elig 33-0.0 8.6 -8.6
Tyler Ladendorf 33 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Tyler Payne 28 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Joc Pederson↔ ATL 29 FA-elig 73-0.1 2.4 -2.6
Dillon Maples 29 pre-arb 28-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Shelby Miller↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Ildemaro Vargas↔ ARI 29 – 9-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Taylor Gushue 27 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Tony Wolters 29 arb 14-0.1 0.8 -1.1
Ryan Meisinger 27 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Michael Rucker 27 – 20-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Nick Martini 31 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Johneshwy Fargas↔ NYM 26 – 15-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Robert Stock↔ NYM 31 – 1-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Brandon Workman↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Justin Steele 25 pre-arb 20-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Austin Romine 32 FA-elig 28-0.2 1.5 -2.1
Trent Giambrone 27 – 5-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Tommy Nance 30 – 27-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Keegan Thompson 26 – 32-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Andrew Romine 35 FA-elig 26-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Trevor Megill 27 – 28-0.3 0.3 -1.2
Manuel Rodríguez 24 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Rex Brothers 33 FA-elig 57-0.3 0.8 -1.7
Kyle Ryan 29 FA-elig 13-0.3 0.8 -1.7
P.J. Higgins 28 – 9-0.3 0.4 -1.4
Greg Deichmann 26 – 14-0.3 0.1 -1.1
David Bote 28 arb 97-0.3 1.0 -2.1
Adam Morgan 31 FA-elig 34-0.3 0.9 -2.0
Jose Lobatón 36 FA-elig 6-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Adrian Sampson 29 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Jake Jewell 28 – 10-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Cory Abbott 25 – 8-0.5 0.0 -1.6
Dan Winkler 31 FA-elig 47-0.5 0.9 -2.6
Jake Arrieta↔ SDP 35 FA-elig 21-0.6 5.0 -6.9
Eric Sogard 35 FA-elig 78-0.7 1.0 -3.2

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Frank Schwindel2.1
Rafael Ortega1.6
Matt Duffy1.2
Sergio Alcántara1.0
Robinson Chirinos0.7
Trevor Williams0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Kyle Schwarber0.5
Tyler Chatwood0.4
Jason Kipnis0.4
Victor Caratini0.3
Jon Lester0.2
Billy Hamilton0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$125.3M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Jason Heyward3111.000$21.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks316.081$14.0MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo318.168$10.8MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel339.161$9.9MFREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta359.145$5.0MFREE AGENT
Joc Pederson297.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Austin Romine327.044$1.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew Chafin316.020$1.4MFREE AGENT
Eric Sogard3511.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dan Winkler316.000$900kFREE AGENT
Kyle Ryan297.000$800kFREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick308.000$657kFREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón367.041$570kFREE AGENT
Robinson Chirinos378.102$484kFREE AGENT
Brandon Workman328.000$124kFREE AGENT
Pedro Strop3612.000$100kFREE AGENT
Andrew Romine356.060$100kFREE AGENT
Shelby Miller306.093$61kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Kris Bryant295.171$12.6MFREE AGENT
Zach Davies285.020$8.6MFREE AGENT
Javier Báez285.089$7.6MFREE AGENT
Willson Contreras294.108$6.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Happ263.036$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Williams294.027$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Duffy305.059$1.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Morgan315.017$900kFREE AGENT
Rex Brothers334.163$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Wolters295.000$800kFREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera335.008$529kFREE AGENT
Trevor Megill275.002$331kFREE AGENT
Joe Biagini315.000$100kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (38)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
David Bote282.100$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Mills291.097$600kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowan Wick281.114$593kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adbert Alzolay260.050$542kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Maples290.136$533kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner241.021$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Higgins280.000$423kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kohl Stewart261.065$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Steele250.011$402kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom290.079$402kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Ortega301.014$399kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Thompson260.000$396kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wieck291.125$393kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Alcántara240.050$356kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Nance300.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Rodríguez240.008$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Rucker270.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Schwindel290.015$177kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Codi Heuer241.000$146kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Hermosillo261.016$145kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Sampson291.134$141kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Martini311.028$141kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johneshwy Fargas26–$121k
Scott Effross270.000$110kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Adam291.147$105kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stock311.123$79kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Jewell280.151$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Deichmann26–$55k
Ryan Meisinger270.079$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Abbott250.000$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ildemaro Vargas292.028$25kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Gushue27–$18k
Trent Giambrone27–$12k
Erick Castillo28–$9k
Tyler Ladendorf331.093$6kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Payne28–$3k
Trayce Thompson301.058—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfonso Rivas III24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.