HOU⇄CHC

HOUHOU Dana Brown net +$7.2M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2025 odds 32% → 34% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan BelloP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net −$7.2M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2025 odds 70% → 68% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan PresslyP·36y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.89/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.