RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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President of baseball ops: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 17 in this regime · payroll 0.51× league · TAB +2.6
+2.6TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+6.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
39%dead money %18th/30
0.494win %19th/30
28.6roster fWAR22nd/30
+36surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$83Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFJose Siri 128GJonny DeLuca 43GJosh Lowe 2G
LFDylan Carlson 35GRichie Palacios 20GJosh Lowe 15G
RFJosh Lowe 79GJonny DeLuca 57GDylan Carlson 34G
SSJosé Caballero 88GTaylor Walls 83GNiko Goodrum 1G
2BBrandon Lowe 58GRichie Palacios 37GJosé Caballero 30G
3BJunior Caminero 39GJosé Caballero 37GCurtis Mead 14G
1BYandy Díaz 112GJonathan Aranda 23GIsaac Paredes 17G
STARTERSZack Littell 2.3WARRyan Pepiot 1.9WARTaj Bradley 1.5WARShane Baz 1.1WARJeffrey Springs 0.4WAR
CBen Rortvedt 111GAlex Jackson 58GRené Pinto 19G
DHChristopher Morel 42GBrandon Lowe 37GYandy Díaz 30G
BULLPEN★ Pete Fairbanks 23svColin Poche 20hKevin Kelly 17hGarrett Cleavinger 15hManuel Rodríguez 11hEdwin Uceta 7hRichard Lovelady 4hHunter Bigge 2h
CBen Rortvedt 111 · Alex Jackson 58 · René Pinto 19
1BYandy Díaz 112 · Jonathan Aranda 23 · Isaac Paredes 17
2BBrandon Lowe 58 · Richie Palacios 37 · José Caballero 30
3BJunior Caminero 39 · José Caballero 37 · Curtis Mead 14
SSJosé Caballero 88 · Taylor Walls 83 · Niko Goodrum 1
LFDylan Carlson 35 · Richie Palacios 20 · Josh Lowe 15
CFJose Siri 128 · Jonny DeLuca 43 · Josh Lowe 2
RFJosh Lowe 79 · Jonny DeLuca 57 · Dylan Carlson 34
DHChristopher Morel 42 · Brandon Lowe 37 · Yandy Díaz 30
SPZack Littell 2.3 · Ryan Pepiot 1.9 · Taj Bradley 1.5 · Shane Baz 1.1 · Jeffrey Springs 0.4
BP★ Pete Fairbanks 23 · Colin Poche 20 · Kevin Kelly 17 · Garrett Cleavinger 15 · Manuel Rodríguez 11 · Edwin Uceta 7 · Richard Lovelady 4 · Hunter Bigge 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Isaac Paredes↔ CHC 25 arb 1012.9 2.2 +9.9
Zack Littell 28 FA-elig 292.3 1.9 +7.6
Brandon Lowe 29 FA-elig 1072.2 8.8 +0.6
Yandy Díaz 32 FA-elig 1451.9 8.0 +0.0
José Caballero 27 pre-arb 1391.9 0.8 +7.3
Ryan Pepiot 26 pre-arb 261.9 0.7 +7.1
Zach Eflin↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 191.9 7.5 +0.3
Jose Siri 28 arb 1301.8 0.8 +6.8
Edwin Uceta 26 arb 301.7 0.7 +6.2
Taj Bradley 23 pre-arb 251.5 0.7 +5.6
Richie Palacios 27 pre-arb 921.3 0.7 +4.7
Ben Rortvedt 26 arb 1121.3 0.8 +4.6
Shane Baz 25 arb 141.1 0.7 +3.7
Randy Arozarena↔ SEA 29 arb 1001.0 5.3 -0.9
Josh Lowe 26 arb 1061.0 0.8 +3.3
Drew Rasmussen 28 arb 161.0 1.9 +2.2
Jonny DeLuca 25 pre-arb 1070.8 0.7 +2.8
Kevin Kelly 26 pre-arb 680.8 0.7 +2.5
Amed Rosario↔ CIN 28 FA-elig 760.7 1.1 +1.7
Junior Caminero 20 pre-arb 430.7 0.7 +2.0
Jason Adam↔ SDP 32 FA-elig 470.6 1.7 +0.8
Pete Fairbanks 30 arb 460.6 3.7 -1.2
Shawn Armstrong↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 380.5 1.4 +0.6
Jeffrey Springs 31 FA-elig 70.4 5.2 -3.6
Jonathan Aranda 26 pre-arb 440.4 0.7 +0.9
Aaron Civale↔ MIL 29 arb 170.4 2.7 -1.1
Mason Montgomery 24 – 90.3 0.1 +1.2
Austin Shenton 26 pre-arb 190.3 0.7 +0.4
Hunter Bigge↔ CHC 26 – 150.2 0.1 +0.8
Manuel Rodríguez 27 arb 400.2 0.7 +0.2
Garrett Cleavinger 30 arb 680.2 0.7 -0.0
Cole Sulser↔ NYM 34 arb 60.1 0.1 +0.5
Justin Sterner 27 pre-arb 20.1 0.7 -0.4
Joel Kuhnel↔ HOU 29 pre-arb 50.1 0.0 +0.3
Logan Driscoll 26 – 150.1 0.1 +0.2
Richard Lovelady↔ CHC 28 arb 280.1 0.6 -0.3
Jacob Waguespack 30 arb 4-0.0 1.2 -1.2
René Pinto 27 pre-arb 19-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Tyler Zuber 29 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Alex Jackson 28 arb 58-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Rob Brantly 34 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Jacob Lopez 26 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Taylor Walls 27 arb 84-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Dylan Carlson↔ STL 25 arb 37-0.2 0.9 -1.9
Kameron Misner 26 – 8-0.2 0.1 -1.1
Curtis Mead 23 pre-arb 38-0.3 0.7 -1.9
Niko Goodrum↔ ANA 32 – 9-0.3 0.1 -1.4
Colin Poche 30 arb 43-0.3 2.4 -3.7
Harold Ramírez↔ WSN 29 arb 48-0.4 2.5 -4.2
Erasmo Ramírez 34 FA-elig 13-0.5 0.2 -2.4
Phil Maton↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 40-0.6 3.5 -5.9
Tyler Alexander 29 arb 23-0.6 1.9 -4.3
Chris Devenski 33 FA-elig 19-0.7 1.0 -3.8
Christopher Morel↔ CHC 25 pre-arb 49-0.8 0.2 -3.6

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
José Caballero1.9
Ryan Pepiot1.9
Edwin Uceta1.7
Richie Palacios1.3
Ben Rortvedt1.3
Shane Baz1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Luke Raley2.3
Robert Stephenson1.2
Jake Diekman0.6
Jalen Beeks0.5
Christian Bethancourt0.4
Elvin Rodríguez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$82.8M
2025 guaranteed
$21.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Brandon Lowe295.058$8.8M$10.5MCLUB$11.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Zach Eflin307.018$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jeffrey Springs315.055$5.2M$10.5M$10.5M$15.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Phil Maton316.047$3.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Adam326.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong339.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Amed Rosario286.062$1.1MFREE AGENT
Chris Devenski338.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez348.132$199kFREE AGENT
Niko Goodrum327.000$109kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Yandy Díaz325.122$8.0MFREE AGENT
Randy Arozarena293.129$5.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks304.057$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Civale294.058$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Harold Ramírez295.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Colin Poche304.140$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Alexander294.058$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rasmussen283.111$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Littell284.043$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson253.104$906kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sulser343.157$96kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Isaac Paredes252.160$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Waguespack301.091$1.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Siri282.015$758kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Walls272.092$757kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lowe261.093$756kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Rortvedt262.043$755kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Caballero270.170$752kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cleavinger302.060$747kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Palacios272.000$745kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
René Pinto270.150$745kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Pepiot261.005$745kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Baz252.014$744kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taj Bradley230.114$743kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Aranda260.103$743kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny DeLuca250.085$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Mead230.040$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Rodríguez271.029$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Jackson281.167$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Caminero200.010$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kelly261.000$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Shenton260.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Lopez260.011$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Sterner270.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Uceta261.048$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Lovelady282.026$592kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christopher Morel251.117$247kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Bigge260.000$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kameron Misner260.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Driscoll26–$96k
Mason Montgomery240.000$95kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel291.097$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Zuber292.087$24kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Brantly342.059$20kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.