NYM⇄TBR

NYMNYM David Stearns net +$0.0M net +0.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2024 odds 35% → 38% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil MatonP·31y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.0M net -0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2024 odds 6% → 5% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.