STL⇄TBR

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2024 odds 10% → 11% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn ArmstrongP·33y·R/R

+$2.3M+$1.1M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.8 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2024 odds 5% → 5% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dylan CarlsonOF·25y·B/L

+$14.2M+$14.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.