NYM⇄TBR

NYMNYM David Stearns net +$0.8M net +0.3

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tyler ZuberP·29y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#180 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$0.8M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Paul GervaseP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#359 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.