RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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President of baseball ops: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 18 in this regime · payroll 0.4× league · TAB +8.2
+8.2TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+7.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars21st/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
28%dead money %15th/30
0.475win %21st/30
30.9roster fWAR19th/30
+63surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$61Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFChandler Simpson 59GKameron Misner 51GJake Mangum 41G
LFChristopher Morel 68GJake Mangum 63GChandler Simpson 52G
RFJosh Lowe 103GJake Mangum 32GKameron Misner 15G
SSTaylor Walls 94GCarson Williams 32GTristan Gray 9G
2BBrandon Lowe 121GCurtis Mead 17GTristan Gray 12G
3BJunior Caminero 148GTristan Gray 5GCoco Montes 2G
1BJonathan Aranda 93GYandy Díaz 37GBob Seymour 25G
STARTERSDrew Rasmussen 2.5WARRyan Pepiot 2.0WARShane Baz 2.0WARIan Seymour 1.1WARAdrian Houser 0.6WAR
CNick Fortes 91GMatt Thaiss 53GHunter Feduccia 34G
DHYandy Díaz 114GChristopher Morel 18GJonathan Aranda 10G
BULLPEN★ Pete Fairbanks 27svGriffin Jax 28hEdwin Uceta 21hGarrett Cleavinger 21hBryan Baker 19hMason Montgomery 10hKevin Kelly 5hEric Orze 1h
CNick Fortes 91 · Matt Thaiss 53 · Hunter Feduccia 34
1BJonathan Aranda 93 · Yandy Díaz 37 · Bob Seymour 25
2BBrandon Lowe 121 · Curtis Mead 17 · Tristan Gray 12
3BJunior Caminero 148 · Tristan Gray 5 · Coco Montes 2
SSTaylor Walls 94 · Carson Williams 32 · Tristan Gray 9
LFChristopher Morel 68 · Jake Mangum 63 · Chandler Simpson 52
CFChandler Simpson 59 · Kameron Misner 51 · Jake Mangum 41
RFJosh Lowe 103 · Jake Mangum 32 · Kameron Misner 15
DHYandy Díaz 114 · Christopher Morel 18 · Jonathan Aranda 10
SPDrew Rasmussen 2.5 · Ryan Pepiot 2.0 · Shane Baz 2.0 · Ian Seymour 1.1 · Adrian Houser 0.6
BP★ Pete Fairbanks 27 · Griffin Jax 28 · Edwin Uceta 21 · Garrett Cleavinger 21 · Bryan Baker 19 · Mason Montgomery 10 · Kevin Kelly 5 · Eric Orze 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Junior Caminero 21 pre-arb 1544.6 0.8 +17.3
Yandy Díaz 33 FA-elig 1502.9 10.0 +1.4
Drew Rasmussen 29 arb 312.5 2.2 +7.8
Jonathan Aranda 27 pre-arb 1062.5 0.8 +9.3
Ryan Pepiot 27 pre-arb 312.0 0.8 +7.3
Shane Baz 26 pre-arb 312.0 1.4 +6.3
Jake Mangum 29 – 1181.8 0.8 +6.5
Brandon Lowe 30 FA-elig 1341.7 10.5 -3.9
Taj Bradley↔ MIN 24 – 211.5 0.4 +5.6
Ian Seymour 26 – 191.1 0.4 +3.9
Pete Fairbanks 31 arb 611.0 3.8 +0.0
José Caballero↔ NYY 28 – 860.9 0.4 +3.3
Zack Littell↔ CIN 29 – 220.9 2.7 +0.9
Danny Jansen↔ MIL 30 – 730.9 4.3 -0.9
Edwin Uceta 27 pre-arb 700.9 0.8 +2.6
Garrett Cleavinger 31 arb 670.7 1.2 +1.7
Chandler Simpson 24 – 1090.7 0.6 +2.3
Manuel Rodríguez 28 pre-arb 310.7 0.8 +1.9
Jonny DeLuca 26 pre-arb 200.6 0.8 +1.5
Mason Englert 25 pre-arb 300.6 0.3 +1.9
Adrian Houser↔ CHW 32 arb 100.6 0.3 +1.9
Joe Boyle 25 pre-arb 130.5 0.3 +1.5
Nick Fortes↔ MIA 28 pre-arb 380.4 0.5 +1.2
Cole Sulser 35 arb 180.4 0.6 +0.8
Curtis Mead↔ CHW 24 – 490.3 0.4 +1.0
Eric Orze 27 pre-arb 330.3 0.4 +0.9
Kameron Misner 27 pre-arb 710.3 0.4 +1.0
Mason Montgomery 25 pre-arb 570.3 0.6 +0.4
Taylor Walls 28 arb 1010.3 1.4 -0.3
Bryan Baker↔ BAL 30 pre-arb 310.2 0.2 +0.8
Griffin Jax↔ MIN 30 arb 230.2 0.5 +0.3
Tristan Gray 29 pre-arb 300.1 0.3 +0.2
Ha-Seong Kim↔ ATL 29 – 240.1 5.6 -5.1
Jesse Scholtens 31 pre-arb 20.1 0.1 +0.3
Connor Seabold↔ ATL 29 – 30.1 0.1 +0.3
Richie Palacios 28 – 170.1 – –
Matt Thaiss↔ CHW 30 arb 250.1 0.3 -0.1
Travis Jankowski↔ CHW 34 – 140.1 0.1 +0.1
Joe Rock 24 – 30.0 0.1 -0.0
Brian Van Belle 28 – 40.0 0.0 +0.0
Joey Gerber 28 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Forrest Whitley↔ HOU 27 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Coco Montes 28 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Garrett Acton 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Cole Wilcox 25 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Christopher Morel 26 pre-arb 105-0.1 0.8 -1.2
Josh Lowe 27 pre-arb 108-0.1 0.8 -1.3
Hunter Bigge 27 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.8 -1.6
Paul Gervase↔ LAD 25 – 5-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Carson Williams 22 – 32-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Bob Seymour 26 – 26-0.3 – –
Tristan Peters 25 – 4-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Hunter Feduccia↔ LAD 28 pre-arb 36-0.4 0.2 -1.8
Everson Pereira 24 pre-arb 23-0.5 0.2 -2.2
Kevin Kelly 27 pre-arb 41-0.5 0.7 -2.8
Ben Rortvedt↔ LAD 27 – 26-0.6 0.5 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Jake Mangum1.8
Ian Seymour1.1
Danny Jansen0.9
Chandler Simpson0.7
Mason Englert0.6
Adrian Houser0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Isaac Paredes2.9
Zach Eflin1.9
Jose Siri1.8
Randy Arozarena1.0
Amed Rosario0.7
Jason Adam0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$61.0M
2026 guaranteed
$19.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Brandon Lowe306.058$10.5MCLUB$11.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz336.122$10.0MFREE AGENT
Danny Jansen306.050$4.3MFREE AGENT
Drew Rasmussen294.111$2.2M$5.8M$9.2MCLUBFREE AGENT
Taylor Walls283.092$1.4M$2.5MCLUB$3.1MCLUBFREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski347.153$145kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Ha-Seong Kim294.000$5.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks315.057$3.8MFREE AGENT
Zack Littell295.043$2.7MFREE AGENT
Garrett Cleavinger313.060$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sulser354.031$607kARB 3FREE AGENT
Griffin Jax303.091$509kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Rortvedt273.043$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Thaiss303.038$280kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Houser325.136$253kFREE AGENT
Richie Palacios283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (40)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Shane Baz262.158$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Uceta271.150$815kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lowe272.093$775kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Pepiot272.005$775kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christopher Morel262.117$772kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny DeLuca261.085$770kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Rodríguez281.139$769kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Aranda271.030$766kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Caminero210.058$764kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Bigge270.049$763kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Mangum290.000$752kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Acton270.015$721kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kelly271.170$707kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Montgomery250.025$638kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chandler Simpson240.000$585kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Fortes282.149$490kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Orze270.010$428kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taj Bradley241.114$398kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Seymour260.000$370kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kameron Misner270.029$364kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Caballero281.170$362kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Mead240.103$361kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Boyle250.115$336kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Englert251.035$307kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tristan Gray290.057$255kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Feduccia280.029$228kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Everson Pereira240.041$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Baker302.049$186kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Williams220.000$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Forrest Whitley270.006$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Coco Montes280.030$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Rock24–$141k
Jesse Scholtens311.125$130kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Gervase250.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gerber280.153$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Seabold291.013$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tristan Peters250.000$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Van Belle28–$20k
Cole Wilcox250.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Seymour26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.