TBR⇄SEA

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$2.4M net +0.2

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $53M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 5.9 ± 7 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2024 odds 5% → 5% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CaballeroSS·27y·R/R

+$19.6M+$19.6M± $53M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 5.9± 7 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$2.4M net -0.2

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $42M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 4.8 ± 5 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2024 odds 29% → 31% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luke RaleyOF·29y·L/R

+$26.6M+$26.6M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 4.8± 5 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.