LAD⇄TBR

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net +0.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2024 odds 83% → 83% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Amed RosarioSS·28y·R/R

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2024 odds 5% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael FlynnP·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#174 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.