TBR⇄STL

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$9.6M net +1.4

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $16M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2024 odds 4% → 5% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Richie Palacios2B/OF·27y·L/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#103 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$9.6M net -1.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2024 odds 13% → 11% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew KittredgeP·34y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.