COL⇄TBR

COLCOL Bill Schmidt net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg JonesOF·26y·S/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2024 odds 5% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe RockP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#68 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.