TBR⇄NYM

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$5.6M net +0.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $16M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2025 odds 7% → 8% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric OrzeP·27y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#150 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM David Stearns net −$5.6M net -0.7

received +$40.0M+$40.0M ± $27M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 4.9 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2025 odds 73% → 69% (-3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José SiriOF·29y·R/R

+$40.1M+$40.1M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 4.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.66/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.