TBR⇄STL

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$81.6M net +7.0

received +$117.6M+$117.6M ± $37M expected surplus · +$74.4M realized received 10.1 ± 5 expected · 6.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 45% → 60% (+15.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy PhamOF·30y·R/R

+$117.2M+$117.2M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$74.4M 10.1± 5 exp WARrealized 6.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

2.71/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$81.6M net -7.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $36M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 3.6 ± 4 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2018 odds 19% → 11% (-7.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin WilliamsOF·22y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Génesis CabreraP·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Roel RamírezP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#248 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.