ANA⇄TBR

ANAANA Billy Eppler net −$3.2M net +1.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 4.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2018 odds 18% → 11% (-6.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Rengifo2B/3B·21y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$3.2M net -1.7

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 47% → 60% (+13.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

C. J. Cron1B·28y·R/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.77/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.