TBR⇄PIT

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$112.8M net +17.6

received +$40.8M+$40.8M ± $66M expected surplus · +$115.2M realized received 9.7 ± 8 expected · 19.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 61% → 60% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin MeadowsDH/OF·23y·L/L

+$23.1M+$23.1M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$38.4M 4.4± 5 exp WARrealized 5.9

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.80/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.80/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Shane BazP·19y·R/R

+$14.0M+$14.0M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 3.8± 5 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

#12 overall draft pick → 0.69/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tyler GlasnowP·24y·L/R

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$62.4M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 9.8

Prior

Composite #23.0 pedigree (Baseball America #23 (2017)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.43/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$112.8M net -17.6

received +$72.0M+$72.0M ± $26M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 5.3 ± 3 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2018 odds 14% → 14% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris ArcherP·29y·R/R

+$72.3M+$72.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 5.3± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.64/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.