TBR⇄ATL

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 62% → 60% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2018 odds 40% → 41% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonny VentersP·33y·L/L

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.