RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.73× league · TAB -7.9
-7.9TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-9.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-3.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
45%dead money %20th/30
0.420win %25th/30
22.5roster fWAR27th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$89Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFLogan Schafer 49GDomingo Santana 24GShane Peterson 20G
LFKhris Davis 108GShane Peterson 33GDomingo Santana 14G
RFRyan Braun 130GDomingo Santana 25GShane Peterson 9G
SSJean Segura 140GLuis Sardinas 14GHéctor Gómez 8G
2BScooter Gennett 108GElian Herrera 36GHéctor Gómez 27G
3BHernán Pérez 80GElian Herrera 47GHéctor Gómez 12G
1BAdam Lind 138GJason Rogers 24GHernán Pérez 7G
STARTERSTaylor Jungmann 1.9WARJimmy Nelson 1.7WARZach Davies 0.4WARAriel Peña 0.3WARMatt Garza 0.1WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 86GMartín Maldonado 74GNevin Ashley 8G
DHRyan Braun 4GAramis Ramirez 2GAdam Lind 1G
BULLPEN Francisco Rodríguez 38svJeremy Jeffress 23hWill Smith 20hMichael Blazek 4hCesar Jimenez 4hCorey Knebel 3hTyler Thornburg 1hDavid Goforth 0h
CJonathan Lucroy 86 · Martín Maldonado 74 · Nevin Ashley 8
1BAdam Lind 138 · Jason Rogers 24 · Hernán Pérez 7
2BScooter Gennett 108 · Elian Herrera 36 · Héctor Gómez 27
3BHernán Pérez 80 · Elian Herrera 47 · Héctor Gómez 12
SSJean Segura 140 · Luis Sardinas 14 · Héctor Gómez 8
LFKhris Davis 108 · Shane Peterson 33 · Domingo Santana 14
CFLogan Schafer 49 · Domingo Santana 24 · Shane Peterson 20
RFRyan Braun 130 · Domingo Santana 25 · Shane Peterson 9
DHRyan Braun 4 · Aramis Ramirez 2 · Adam Lind 1
SPTaylor Jungmann 1.9 · Jimmy Nelson 1.7 · Zach Davies 0.4 · Ariel Peña 0.3 · Matt Garza 0.1
BP Francisco Rodríguez 38 · Jeremy Jeffress 23 · Will Smith 20 · Michael Blazek 4 · Cesar Jimenez 4 · Corey Knebel 3 · Tyler Thornburg 1 · David Goforth 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Braun 31 FA-elig 1403.2 13.0 -3.0
Gerardo Parra↔ BAL 28 FA-elig 1002.4 4.0 +3.5
Adam Lind 31 FA-elig 1492.0 7.5 -1.3
Taylor Jungmann 25 211.9 0.3 +5.7
Jimmy Nelson 26 pre-arb 301.7 0.5 +4.9
Mike Fiers↔ HOU 30 arb 211.6 0.3 +4.8
Jonathan Lucroy 29 arb 1031.6 3.0 +2.0
Carlos Gómez↔ HOU 29 FA-elig 741.5 5.1 -0.5
Will Smith 25 arb 761.3 0.5 +3.7
Khris Davis 27 pre-arb 1211.2 0.5 +3.3
Aramis Ramirez↔ PIT 37 FA-elig 811.1 8.3 -4.9
Martín Maldonado 28 arb 791.1 0.8 +2.5
Francisco Rodríguez 33 FA-elig 601.0 3.5 -0.5
Jeremy Jeffress 27 arb 720.7 0.5 +1.8
Jason Rogers 27 pre-arb 860.7 0.5 +1.6
Michael Blazek 26 pre-arb 450.6 0.5 +1.3
Domingo Santana↔ HOU 22 pre-arb 380.4 0.1 +1.3
Hernán Pérez↔ DET 24 arb 900.4 0.4 +0.8
Zach Davies 22 60.4 0.1 +1.0
Ariel Peña 26 pre-arb 60.3 0.1 +0.9
Elian Herrera 30 pre-arb 830.2 0.3 +0.3
Yhonathan Barrios 23 50.2 0.0 +0.5
Jorge López 22 20.2 0.0 +0.5
Shane Peterson 27 pre-arb 930.2 0.3 +0.2
Scooter Gennett 25 pre-arb 1140.2 0.5 +0.0
Cesar Jimenez↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 160.1 0.5 -0.1
Jonathan Broxton↔ STL 31 FA-elig 400.1 5.5 -5.1
Matt Garza 31 FA-elig 260.1 12.5 -12.3
Jean Segura 25 arb 1420.1 0.5 -0.3
Corey Knebel 23 pre-arb 480.0 0.4 -0.2
Wily Peralta 26 arb 200.0 0.5 -0.4
Michael Reed 22 pre-arb 70.0 0.0 +0.0
Tyler Cravy 25 pre-arb 14-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Adrian Houser 22 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
David Goforth 26 pre-arb 20-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Tyler Wagner 24 3-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Kyle Lohse 36 FA-elig 41-0.1 11.0 -11.2
Brandon Kintzler 30 arb 7-0.1 1.1 -1.4
Preston Guilmet↔ TBR 27 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Rob Wooten 29 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Yadiel Rivera 23 7-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Luis Jimenez↔ BOS 27 pre-arb 15-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Neal Cotts↔ MIN 35 FA-elig 51-0.2 2.2 -2.9
Nevin Ashley 30 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Logan Schafer 28 arb 69-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Tyler Thornburg 26 arb 24-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Juan Centeno 25 pre-arb 10-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Héctor Gómez 27 arb 66-0.5 0.5 -2.2
Luis Sardinas 22 pre-arb 36-0.7 0.1 -2.4

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Adam Lind2.0
Taylor Jungmann1.9
Michael Blazek0.6
Domingo Santana0.4
Hernán Pérez0.4
Zach Davies0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Rickie Weeks Jr.1.3
Zach Duke1.3
Mark Reynolds1.0
Tom Gorzelanny0.1
Matt Pagnozzi-0.0
Alfredo Figaro-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$88.9M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Ryan Braun317.129$13.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Garza317.149$12.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse3613.092$11.0MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez3715.111$8.3MFREE AGENT
Adam Lind319.058$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton319.020$5.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez297.141$5.1MFREE AGENT
Francisco Rodríguez3311.115$3.5MFREE AGENT
Neal Cotts356.041$2.2MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Gerardo Parra285.145$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy294.136$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler303.101$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Smith253.000$512kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Gómez274.000$507kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Jimenez303.020$484kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fiers304.000$347kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Martín Maldonado282.156$825kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jean Segura252.065$534kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wily Peralta262.033$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Khris Davis271.104$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scooter Gennett251.084$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Nelson260.107$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Thornburg261.146$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Schafer282.018$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress271.104$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Wooten291.023$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Blazek260.067$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Centeno250.063$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Rogers270.163$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Jimenez272.000$477kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hernán Pérez240.093$409kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Knebel230.029$377kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Peterson270.126$344kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jungmann250.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elian Herrera302.010$288kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Cravy250.081$222kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Goforth260.078$208kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sardinas220.089$144kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Santana220.015$101kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Davies220.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ariel Peña260.031$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nevin Ashley300.027$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wagner240.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yadiel Rivera230.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yhonathan Barrios230.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Reed220.084$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Houser220.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López220.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Guilmet271.034$4kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3