MIL⇄BAL

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$92.8M net +7.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$84.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 7.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2015 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach DaviesP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$84.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 7.5

Prior

#785 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$92.8M net -7.9

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2015 odds 16% → 14% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gerardo ParraOF·28y·L/L

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.23/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.