MIL⇄PIT

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$28.8M net +4.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $36M expected surplus · +$28.0M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 4.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2016 odds 2% → 3% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trey SupakP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Keon BroxtonOF·26y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$28.0M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized 4.4

Prior

#95 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$28.8M net -4.5

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2016 odds 13% → 8% (-4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason Rogers1B·28y·R/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#969 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.