STL⇄MIL

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$14.4M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2015 odds 65% → 65% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonathan BroxtonP·31y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$14.4M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2015 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Malik CollymoreLF·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#305 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.