MIL⇄PIT

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$4.8M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2015 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yhonathan BarriosP·23y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$4.8M net -0.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $7M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2015 odds 63% → 62% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aramis Ramírez3B·37y·R/R

+$3.2M+$3.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.96/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.