SEA⇄MIL

SEASEA Jeff Kingston net +$4.0M net +0.8

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $29M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2016 odds 26% → 30% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Sardiñas2B/SS·23y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.6/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$4.0M net -0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2016 odds 4% → 3% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ramón FloresOF·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.