RRosternomics

Diamondbacks ARI

GM: Bob Gebhard

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB -8.4
-8.4TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-3.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-6.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
30%dead money %14th/30
0.475win %20th/30
24.3roster fWAR26th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$64Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFLuis Terrero 74GJosé Cruz Jr. 53GQuinton McCracken 46G
LFLuis Gonzalez 152GQuinton McCracken 11GChad Tracy 6G
RFShawn Green 135GChad Tracy 47GQuinton McCracken 2G
SSRoyce Clayton 141GAlex Cintron 39GAndy Green 2G
2BCraig Counsell 143GAlex Cintron 23GAndy Green 5G
3BTroy Glaus 145GAlex Cintron 32G
1BTony Clark 83GChad Tracy 80GConor Jackson 20G
STARTERSBrandon Webb 4.2WARJavier Vazquez 4.0WARBrad Halsey 1.8WARClaudio Vargas 0.7WARShawn Estes 0.6WAR
CChris Snyder 113GKelly Stinnett 56GKoyie Hill 32G
DHTony Clark 7GScott Hairston 2GTroy Glaus 1G
BULLPEN Jose Valverde 15svLance Cormier 13hTim Worrell 12hMike Koplove 9hBuddy Groom 7hJavier López 6hBrian Bruney 4hGreg Aquino 3h
CChris Snyder 113 · Kelly Stinnett 56 · Koyie Hill 32
1BTony Clark 83 · Chad Tracy 80 · Conor Jackson 20
2BCraig Counsell 143 · Alex Cintron 23 · Andy Green 5
3BTroy Glaus 145 · Alex Cintron 32
SSRoyce Clayton 141 · Alex Cintron 39 · Andy Green 2
LFLuis Gonzalez 152 · Quinton McCracken 11 · Chad Tracy 6
CFLuis Terrero 74 · José Cruz Jr. 53 · Quinton McCracken 46
RFShawn Green 135 · Chad Tracy 47 · Quinton McCracken 2
DHTony Clark 7 · Scott Hairston 2 · Troy Glaus 1
SPBrandon Webb 4.2 · Javier Vazquez 4.0 · Brad Halsey 1.8 · Claudio Vargas 0.7 · Shawn Estes 0.6
BP Jose Valverde 15 · Lance Cormier 13 · Tim Worrell 12 · Mike Koplove 9 · Buddy Groom 7 · Javier López 6 · Brian Bruney 4 · Greg Aquino 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Webb 26 pre-arb 334.2 0.7 +7.3
Javier Vazquez 28 FA-elig 334.0 11.0 -3.5
Chad Tracy 25 pre-arb 1453.9 0.3 +7.1
Troy Glaus 28 FA-elig 1493.2 9.0 -3.0
Tony Clark 33 FA-elig 1303.1 0.8 +5.1
Craig Counsell 34 FA-elig 1502.8 1.4 +4.0
Luis Gonzalez 37 FA-elig 1552.6 10.1 -5.1
Brad Halsey 24 pre-arb 281.8 0.3 +3.0
Jose Valverde 27 pre-arb 611.6 0.3 +2.7
Shawn Green 32 FA-elig 1581.2 7.8 -5.6
Claudio Vargas↔ WSN 27 pre-arb 210.7 0.3 +1.0
Shawn Estes 32 FA-elig 210.6 2.5 -1.3
Brandon Medders 25 270.4
Lance Cormier 24 670.2
Tim Worrell↔ PHI 37 FA-elig 320.2 1.9 -1.6
Mike Gosling 24 pre-arb 130.2 0.3 -0.0
Dustin Nippert 24 30.1
Royce Clayton 35 FA-elig 1430.1 1.4 -1.1
Matt Kata↔ PHI 27 pre-arb 300.1 0.2 -0.1
Kelly Stinnett 35 590.1
Jason Bulger 26 90.1
Andy Green 27 170.0
Buddy Groom↔ NYY 39 230.0
Randy Choate 29 arb 8-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Koyie Hill 26 pre-arb 34-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Edgar Gonzalez 22 1-0.1
Russ Ortiz 31 FA-elig 24-0.1 7.4 -7.6
Armando Almanza 32 6-0.1
Oscar Villarreal 23 11-0.2
Mike Koplove 28 arb 44-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Alex Cintron 26 arb 122-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Javier López↔ COL 27 pre-arb 29-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Kerry Ligtenberg 34 7-0.3
Brian Bruney 23 pre-arb 47-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Matt Herges↔ SFG 35 FA-elig 7-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Chris Snyder 24 pre-arb 115-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Greg Aquino 27 pre-arb 35-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Scott Hairston 25 15-0.4 0.3 -1.2
Brandon Lyon 25 arb 32-0.5 0.3 -1.2
Quinton McCracken 34 FA-elig 134-0.5 0.8 -1.7
Conor Jackson 23 40-0.5 0.3 -1.3
Luis Terrero 25 pre-arb 88-0.6 0.3 -1.4
José Cruz Jr.↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 64-1.4 2.2 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Javier Vazquez4.0
Troy Glaus3.2
Tony Clark3.1
Craig Counsell2.8
Brad Halsey1.8
Shawn Green1.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Randy Johnson9.5
Steve Finley1.2
Elmer Dessens1.0
Shea Hillenbrand0.8
Richie Sexson0.8
Steve Sparks0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$63.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Javier Vazquez287.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Gonzalez3715.000$10.1M$10.7MFREE AGENT
Troy Glaus287.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Shawn Green3212.000$7.8M$7.9MFREE AGENT
Russ Ortiz317.000$7.4M$6.1MFREE AGENT
Shawn Estes3210.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.318.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Tim Worrell3712.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell3410.000$1.4M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3514.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken3410.000$750kFREE AGENT
Tony Clark3310.000$750k$1.0M$1.0M$583k$800kFREE AGENT
Matt Herges356.000$400kFREE AGENT
Buddy Groom3913.000FREE AGENT
Kerry Ligtenberg348.000FREE AGENT
Kelly Stinnett3511.000FREE AGENT
Armando Almanza326.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Mike Koplove284.000$825kARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Choate295.000$550kFREE AGENT
Alex Cintron264.000$360kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon254.000$330kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Brandon Webb262.000$715kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Valverde272.000$335kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Tracy251.000$335kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Aquino271.000$325kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bruney231.000$322kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Terrero252.000$321kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Snyder241.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Koyie Hill262.000$318kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Halsey241.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Gosling241.000$318kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Jackson230.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Hairston251.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier López272.000$291kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas272.000$273kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kata272.000$248kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bulger260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oscar Villarreal232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez222.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Medders250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Nippert240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Green271.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Cormier241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Diamondbacks 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3