TOR⇄ARI

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net −$9.6M net +2.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2005 odds 8% → 13% (+4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shea Hillenbrand1B/3B·29y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Bob Gebhard net +$9.6M net -2.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $29M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2005 odds 3% → 2% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam PetersonP·26y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#116 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.