NYY⇄ARI

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$8.8M net +1.4

received −$35.2M−$35.2M ± $0M expected surplus · +$57.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 7.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2005 odds 16% → 11% (-4.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy JohnsonP·41y·R/L

−$35.4M−$35.4M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$57.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 7.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 8.2/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

5.69/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Bob Gebhard net +$8.8M net -1.4

received +$63.2M+$37.6M ± $34M expected surplus · +$66.4M realized received 8.9 ± 4 expected · 5.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2005 odds 1% → 2% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Javier VázquezP·28y·R/R

+$44.5M+$19.1M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$45.6M 4.4± 2 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Brad HalseyP·24y·L/L

+$14.0M+$14.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

#246 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dioner NavarroC·21y·B/R

+$4.5M+$4.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #41.0 pedigree (Baseball America #41 (2004)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.