ARI⇄PHI

ARIARI Bob Gebhard net −$4.0M net +0.3

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $5M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2005 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim WorrellP·37y·R/R

−$2.5M−$2.5M± $5M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net +$4.0M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2005 odds 72% → 71% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt Kata2B·27y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.