RRosternomics

Diamondbacks ARI

GM: Joe Garagiola

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.0× league · TAB -24.0
-24.0TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-30.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-11.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
34%dead money %21st/30
0.315win %30th/30
10.3roster fWAR29th/30
-42surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$66Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFLuis Terrero 57GQuinton McCracken 7GDonnie Sadler 3G
LFLuis Gonzalez 104GQuinton McCracken 31GDoug DeVore 18G
RFDanny Bautista 135GDoug DeVore 15GQuinton McCracken 10G
SSAlex Cintron 133GJerry Gil 28GTim Olson 17G
2BScott Hairston 85GMatt Kata 38GAlex Cintron 19G
3BChad Tracy 135GTim Olson 19GAndy Green 18G
1BShea Hillenbrand 131GRichie Sexson 23GChad Tracy 11G
STARTERSRandy Johnson 9.5WARBrandon Webb 2.2WARSteve Sparks 0.4WARJeff Fassero 0.0WARChad Durbin -0.1WAR
CJuan Brito 54GRobby Hammock 46GChris Snyder 29G
DHCarlos Baerga 2GGreg Colbrunn 2GDanny Bautista 1G
BULLPEN Greg Aquino 16svMike Koplove 19hRandy Choate 11hJose Valverde 5hBrian Bruney 2hMike Fetters 1hScott Service 1hBrandon Villafuerte 0h
CJuan Brito 54 · Robby Hammock 46 · Chris Snyder 29
1BShea Hillenbrand 131 · Richie Sexson 23 · Chad Tracy 11
2BScott Hairston 85 · Matt Kata 38 · Alex Cintron 19
3BChad Tracy 135 · Tim Olson 19 · Andy Green 18
SSAlex Cintron 133 · Jerry Gil 28 · Tim Olson 17
LFLuis Gonzalez 104 · Quinton McCracken 31 · Doug DeVore 18
CFLuis Terrero 57 · Quinton McCracken 7 · Donnie Sadler 3
RFDanny Bautista 135 · Doug DeVore 15 · Quinton McCracken 10
DHCarlos Baerga 2 · Greg Colbrunn 2 · Danny Bautista 1
SPRandy Johnson 9.5 · Brandon Webb 2.2 · Steve Sparks 0.4 · Jeff Fassero 0.0 · Chad Durbin -0.1
BP Greg Aquino 16 · Mike Koplove 19 · Randy Choate 11 · Jose Valverde 5 · Brian Bruney 2 · Mike Fetters 1 · Scott Service 1 · Brandon Villafuerte 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Randy Johnson 40 FA-elig 359.5 16.0 +0.2
Brandon Webb 25 pre-arb 352.2 0.3 +3.5
Chad Tracy 24 1431.6
Steve Finley↔ LAD 39 FA-elig 1041.2 4.5 -2.5
Elmer Dessens↔ LAD 33 FA-elig 381.0 3.0 -1.3
Luis Gonzalez 36 FA-elig 1051.0 8.2 -6.6
Shea Hillenbrand 28 arb 1480.8 2.6 -1.2
Randy Choate 28 arb 740.8 0.3 +1.0
Richie Sexson 29 FA-elig 230.8 8.7 -7.4
Chris Snyder 23 290.6
Mike Koplove 27 arb 760.5 0.3 +0.5
Quinton McCracken↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 550.5 1.3 -0.5
Steve Sparks 39 FA-elig 290.4 0.5 +0.3
Doug DeVore 26 500.3
Brian Bruney 22 300.2
Brent Mayne↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 360.1 0.3 -0.1
Roberto Alomar↔ CHW 36 FA-elig 380.1 0.7 -0.5
Oscar Villarreal 22 pre-arb 170.1 0.3 -0.2
Jeff Fassero↔ COL 41 FA-elig 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Shane Reynolds 36 FA-elig 10.0 1.0 -0.9
Greg Aquino 26 340.0
Bobby Estalella↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 70.0 0.3 -0.3
Matt Kata 26 pre-arb 420.0 0.3 -0.3
Danny Bautista 32 FA-elig 141-0.0 4.0 -4.1
Koyie Hill 25 13-0.1
Mike Fetters 39 23-0.1
Chad Durbin↔ CLE 26 arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Donnie Sadler 29 FA-elig 18-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Brandon Villafuerte 28 20-0.1
Alan Zinter 36 28-0.2
Jose Valverde 26 pre-arb 29-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Mike Gosling 23 6-0.2
Casey Fossum 26 arb 29-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Scott Hairston 24 101-0.3
Josh Kroeger 21 22-0.3
Andrew Good 24 17-0.3
Carlos Baerga 35 FA-elig 79-0.3 1.0 -1.5
Casey Daigle 23 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.3 -0.8
Shane Nance 26 pre-arb 19-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Scott Service 37 21-0.3
Luis Terrero 24 62-0.4
Robby Hammock 27 pre-arb 62-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Stephen Randolph 30 pre-arb 47-0.5 0.3 -1.2
Matt Mantei 30 FA-elig 12-0.5 7.0 -7.9
Greg Colbrunn 34 FA-elig 20-0.6 2.8 -3.7
Tim Olson 25 48-0.6
Edgar Gonzalez 21 10-0.7
Lance Cormier 23 17-0.8
Juan Brito 24 54-0.8
Jerry Gil 21 29-0.8
Alex Cintron 25 arb 154-1.0 0.3 -2.0
Andy Green 26 46-1.0

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Chad Tracy1.6
Randy Choate0.8
Richie Sexson0.8
Chris Snyder0.6
Steve Sparks0.4
Doug DeVore0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Curt Schilling5.2
Miguel Batista3.8
Lyle Overbay0.9
Chad Moeller0.8
Raul Mondesi0.8
Byung-Hyun Kim0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$66.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Randy Johnson4016.000$16.0MFREE AGENT$9.1M$15.1M
Richie Sexson297.000$8.7MFREE AGENT
Luis Gonzalez3614.000$8.2M$10.1M$10.7MFREE AGENT
Matt Mantei309.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Steve Finley3915.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Danny Bautista3211.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens338.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Greg Colbrunn3412.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken339.000$1.3M$750kFREE AGENT
Shane Reynolds3612.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Baerga3514.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Roberto Alomar3616.000$679kFREE AGENT
Steve Sparks399.000$500kFREE AGENT
Donnie Sadler296.000$400kFREE AGENT
Brent Mayne3614.000$347kFREE AGENT
Bobby Estalella298.000$321kFREE AGENT
Jeff Fassero4113.000$12kFREE AGENT
Mike Fetters3915.000FREE AGENT
Scott Service3716.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Shea Hillenbrand283.000$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Fossum263.000$345kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cintron253.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Koplove273.000$330kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Choate284.000$326kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Durbin265.000$92kFREE AGENT
Brandon Villafuerte284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Brandon Webb251.000$335kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oscar Villarreal221.000$325kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Randolph301.000$322kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Valverde261.000$320kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robby Hammock271.000$315kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kata261.000$315kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Nance262.000$308kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Daigle230.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Zinter36
Doug DeVore26
Luis Terrero241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Brito24
Koyie Hill251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Good24
Greg Aquino260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Olson25
Mike Gosling230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez211.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Tracy240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bruney220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Gil210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Hairston240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Kroeger21
Chris Snyder230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Green260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Cormier230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Diamondbacks 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3