LAD⇄ARI

LADLAD Paul DePodesta net +$36.0M net +0.1

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.9 ± 5 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2005 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dioner NavarroC·21y·B/R

+$4.5M+$4.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

Composite #41.0 pedigree (Baseball America #41 (2004)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Danny MueggeP·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#576 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Beltrán PérezP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

William Juarez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Bob Gebhard net −$36.0M net -0.1

received −$17.6M−$17.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$36.0M realized received 3.3 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2005 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn GreenOF·32y·L/L

−$17.4M−$17.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$36.0M 3.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

2.28/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.