TBR⇄ARI

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net +$16.0M net +2.9

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2005 odds 1% → 2% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Casey FossumP·27y·L/L

+$10.2M+$10.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Bob Gebhard net −$16.0M net -2.9

received +$16.8M+$10.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · -1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2005 odds 4% → 2% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CruzOF·31y·B/R

+$16.5M+$10.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized -1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.