CHC⇄BOS

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2024 odds 20% → 22% (+2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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BOSBOS Craig Breslow net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2024 odds 27% → 25% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Garrett Cooper1B/DH·33y·R/R

+$2.7M+$1.9M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.