BOS⇄MIN

BOSBOS Craig Breslow net +$3.2M net +0.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2025 odds 63% → 67% (+3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jovani MoránP·28y·L/L

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#200 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net −$3.2M net -0.7

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2025 odds 12% → 10% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mickey GasperC/DH·29y·S/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#817 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.4/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.