BOS⇄WSN

BOSBOS Craig Breslow net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $41M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.8 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Curtis Mead1B/3B·25y·R/R

+$13.8M+$13.8M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.8± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.89/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Paul Toboni net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$35.2M+$35.2M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.8 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Connelly EarlyP·24y·L/L

+$35.0M+$35.0M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#151 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 8.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

1.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.