BOS⇄STL

BOSBOS Craig Breslow net +$31.2M net +2.7

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$31.2M realized received 3.3 ± 1 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Sonny GrayP·36y·R/R

+$20.3M+$20.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$31.2M 3.3± 1 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

3.16/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.53 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$31.2M net -2.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Brandon ClarkeP·23y·L/L

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#148 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Richard FittsP·26y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#183 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.