BOS⇄OAK

BOSBOS Craig Breslow net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Brett Harris3B·28y·R/R

+$4.7M+$4.7M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#218 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.57 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK David Forst net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $55M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ben HansenP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $55M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#597 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.