RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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President of baseball ops: Craig Breslow

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.91× league · TAB +3.6
+3.6TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+0.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
18%dead money %3rd/30
0.500win %18th/30
36.7roster fWAR14th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$147Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFJarren Duran 105GCeddanne Rafaela 87GRomy Gonzalez 1G
LFJarren Duran 83GTyler O'Neill 70GRob Refsnyder 46G
RFWilyer Abreu 125GTyler O'Neill 50GRob Refsnyder 37G
SSCeddanne Rafaela 82GDavid Hamilton 62GTrevor Story 26G
2BEnmanuel Valdez 65GDavid Hamilton 39GRomy Gonzalez 31G
3BRafael Devers 130GRomy Gonzalez 14GBobby Dalbec 13G
1BTriston Casas 61GBobby Dalbec 21GRomy Gonzalez 20G
STARTERSTanner Houck 3.9WARNick Pivetta 2.0WARBrayan Bello 2.0WARKutter Crawford 1.8WARCooper Criswell 1.1WAR
CConnor Wong 106GDanny Jansen 81GReese McGuire 48G
DHMasataka Yoshida 101GTyler O'Neill 18GGarrett Cooper 15G
BULLPEN★ Kenley Jansen 27svLucas Sims 16hChris Martin 15hLuis García 14hBrennan Bernardino 14hJustin Slaten 13hZack Kelly 8hGreg Weissert 6h
CConnor Wong 106 · Danny Jansen 81 · Reese McGuire 48
1BTriston Casas 61 · Bobby Dalbec 21 · Romy Gonzalez 20
2BEnmanuel Valdez 65 · David Hamilton 39 · Romy Gonzalez 31
3BRafael Devers 130 · Romy Gonzalez 14 · Bobby Dalbec 13
SSCeddanne Rafaela 82 · David Hamilton 62 · Trevor Story 26
LFJarren Duran 83 · Tyler O'Neill 70 · Rob Refsnyder 46
CFJarren Duran 105 · Ceddanne Rafaela 87 · Romy Gonzalez 1
RFWilyer Abreu 125 · Tyler O'Neill 50 · Rob Refsnyder 37
DHMasataka Yoshida 101 · Tyler O'Neill 18 · Garrett Cooper 15
SPTanner Houck 3.9 · Nick Pivetta 2.0 · Brayan Bello 2.0 · Kutter Crawford 1.8 · Cooper Criswell 1.1
BP★ Kenley Jansen 27 · Lucas Sims 16 · Chris Martin 15 · Luis García 14 · Brennan Bernardino 14 · Justin Slaten 13 · Zack Kelly 8 · Greg Weissert 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jarren Duran 27 arb 1606.8 0.8 +27.7
Rafael Devers 27 FA-elig 1384.2 29.5 -12.1
Tanner Houck 28 arb 303.9 0.8 +15.4
Wilyer Abreu 25 pre-arb 1323.1 0.7 +12.0
Tyler O'Neill 29 FA-elig 1132.5 5.8 +4.8
Nick Pivetta 31 FA-elig 272.0 7.5 +0.9
Brayan Bello 25 pre-arb 302.0 1.2 +7.1
Kutter Crawford 28 arb 331.8 0.8 +6.9
David Hamilton 26 pre-arb 981.6 0.7 +6.1
Justin Slaten 26 pre-arb 441.5 0.7 +5.4
Kenley Jansen 36 FA-elig 541.4 16.0 -10.1
Rob Refsnyder 33 FA-elig 931.3 1.9 +3.8
Connor Wong 28 arb 1261.1 0.8 +3.9
Cooper Criswell 27 arb 261.1 1.0 +3.6
Ceddanne Rafaela 23 pre-arb 1521.0 1.2 +3.0
Chris Martin 38 FA-elig 450.9 9.5 -5.8
Masataka Yoshida 30 pre-arb 1080.9 18.6 -15.0
Trevor Story 31 FA-elig 260.7 22.5 -19.7
Triston Casas 24 pre-arb 630.6 0.8 +1.9
Greg Weissert 29 pre-arb 620.5 0.7 +1.5
Richard Fitts 24 – 40.5 0.1 +1.8
Garrett Whitlock 28 arb 40.4 3.5 -1.8
Dominic Smith↔ CIN 29 FA-elig 840.3 1.3 +0.1
Nick Sogard 26 – 310.3 0.2 +1.1
Luis Guerrero 23 – 90.3 0.1 +1.2
James Paxton↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 30.3 1.0 +0.3
Cam Booser 32 pre-arb 430.3 0.7 +0.4
Romy Gonzalez 27 arb 890.2 0.7 +0.3
Josh Winckowski 26 pre-arb 400.2 0.8 +0.2
Brennan Bernardino 32 pre-arb 570.2 0.7 +0.1
Reese McGuire 29 FA-elig 530.2 1.5 -0.8
Quinn Priester↔ PIT 23 pre-arb 10.1 0.1 +0.4
Naoyuki Uwasawa 30 pre-arb 20.1 0.7 -0.3
Chase Shugart 27 – 60.1 0.1 +0.3
Joe Jacques↔ ARI 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.4 -0.2
Tyler Heineman↔ TOR 33 arb 20.0 0.2 -0.1
Danny Jansen↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 310.0 1.7 -1.7
Yohan Ramírez↔ BAL 29 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Zach Penrod 27 – 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Trey Wingenter↔ CHC 30 – 2-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Rich Hill 44 – 4-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Joely Rodríguez 32 FA-elig 14-0.1 2.0 -2.5
Luis García↔ ANA 37 FA-elig 15-0.1 1.1 -1.5
Brad Keller↔ CHW 28 – 11-0.1 0.8 -1.3
Jamie Westbrook 29 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Zack Short↔ ATL 29 arb 2-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Lucas Sims↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 15-0.2 0.7 -1.7
Zack Kelly 29 pre-arb 49-0.3 0.7 -1.8
Mickey Gasper 28 – 13-0.3 0.1 -1.4
Chase Anderson↔ TEX 36 FA-elig 27-0.4 1.2 -2.8
Isaiah Campbell 26 pre-arb 8-0.4 0.7 -2.4
Bailey Horn 26 – 18-0.5 0.2 -2.2
Garrett Cooper↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 24-0.5 1.2 -3.4
Enmanuel Valdez 25 pre-arb 76-0.6 0.7 -3.2
Vaughn Grissom 23 pre-arb 31-0.7 0.7 -3.5
Bobby Dalbec 29 pre-arb 37-0.7 0.4 -3.2
Pablo Reyes↔ NYM 30 – 21-0.7 0.1 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Tyler O'Neill2.5
Justin Slaten1.5
Cooper Criswell1.1
Greg Weissert0.5
Richard Fitts0.5
Dominic Smith0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Adam Duvall1.6
Alex Verdugo1.6
Raimel Tapia0.3
Luis Urías0.2
Ryan Sherriff0.1
Mauricio Llovera0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$147.2M
2025 guaranteed
$66.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Rafael Devers276.070$29.5M$15.4M$27.0M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M
Trevor Story318.000$22.5M$22.5M$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0M$25.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Masataka Yoshida301.000$18.6M$18.6M$18.6M$18.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenley Jansen3613.072$16.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Martin386.133$9.5MFREE AGENT
Garrett Whitlock283.000$3.5M$5.5M$7.5M$8.2MCLUB$10.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Joely Rodríguez328.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Ceddanne Rafaela230.035$1.2M$1.2M$2.2M$3.8M$5.8M$7.8M$10.8M
Brayan Bello251.082$1.2M$2.7M$6.2M$8.7M$16.2M$19.2M$21.0MCLUB
Garrett Cooper337.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson368.141$1.2MFREE AGENT
James Paxton359.151$1.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Keller286.000$763kFREE AGENT
Rich Hill4414.127$54kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Nick Pivetta315.166$7.5MFREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill295.059$5.8MFREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder335.048$1.9MFREE AGENT
Danny Jansen295.050$1.7MFREE AGENT
Reese McGuire294.027$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Smith295.081$1.3MFREE AGENT
Lucas Sims305.014$737kFREE AGENT
Trey Wingenter304.017$343kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman335.000$185kFREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez293.001$8kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Luis García372.142$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Criswell270.142$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Houck282.100$770kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Wong281.079$760kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston Casas241.032$760kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winckowski261.074$760kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarren Duran271.155$760kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kutter Crawford281.136$760kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilyer Abreu250.041$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaiah Campbell260.086$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enmanuel Valdez250.077$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Weissert290.088$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vaughn Grissom230.094$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Booser320.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hamilton260.020$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Romy Gonzalez271.083$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Naoyuki Uwasawa300.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Slaten260.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brennan Bernardino320.153$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jamie Westbrook290.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Kelly291.038$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Jacques290.090$370kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Dalbec292.115$358kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Horn260.000$195kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Sogard260.000$195kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Gasper280.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo Reyes302.043$129kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Guerrero230.000$95kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Fitts240.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Shugart270.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Quinn Priester230.049$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Penrod270.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Short291.086$36kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.