Rosternomics
AA

Al Avila

Born 1959 · Havana · age 67

General manager for the Tigers (2016–2022).

Across the full 7-season sample, the measured profile stands out most for traded-for surplus (88th percentile). The clearest contrast is payroll-adjusted roster quality (1st percentile): the measured clubs have produced less roster quality relative to payroll-based expectations than most peers.

7 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

0 pennants · 0 playoff appearances · 427–601 (0.415)

Percentile Rankings

vs. execs with toyrs exp.
PoorAverageGreat
Trade Decision Quality
Roster Construction
Depth
3.0
Dead WAR
-6.7
Dead money %
49%
PoorAverageGreat
Talent Creation
Cheap-talent surplus
$20M
Drafted surplus
$5M
Traded-for surplus
$16M
Int'l surplus
$-0M
Results & Efficiency
GM WAR
-7.3
TAB
-82.8
WAB
-84.7
$ / WAR
$5.1M
Net WAR/trade
-1.04

Overview

TeamRoleYear Pay
$M
Rel
Pay
Surp
$M
Surp
WAR
Dead
%
Cheap
$M
Draft
$M
Trd
$M
Int'l
$M
$ /
WAR
WAR Depth Dead
WAR
HG Trade Net/
Trd
FA R5 RFA PPA CPA WAB TAB W-L% POPenWS
Tigers GM 2016 86–75 $197 157 -72 -22.2 7% +28 +9 +19 +0 $4.6M 38.4 6.0 -4.4 +4.8 -1.3 -0.42 +4.8 -0.1 +0.14 3.98 0.27 -1.1 -1.0 0.534
Tigers GM 2017 64–98 $168 129 -88 -26.0 36% +26 -1 +29 -3 $5.4M 23.9 6.0 -7.2 -0.1 -17.9 -3.58 +7.1 +1.3 +2.02 0.34 0.08 -21.1 -13.3 0.395
Tigers GM 2018 64–98 $113 87 -65 -19.1 33% +12 -4 +18 -2 $5.1M 14.0 2.0 -8.0 +24.3 +0.8 +0.78 -10.4 -0.3 +0.05 0.02 0.02 -16.1 -18.5 0.395
Tigers GM 2019 47–114 $101 78 -67 -20.4 61% +15 +1 +14 -0 $4.9M 10.3 3.0 -10.5 +0.0 +0.3 +0.13 +3.0 -0.4 +0.01 0.02 0.02 -31.3 -20.9 0.292
Tigers GM 2020 23–35 $92 78 -43 -5.9 87% +31 +6 +25 -1 $7.8M 6.6 0.0 -5.1 +0.0 -0.8 -0.80 -1.9 +1.8 +0.00 0.39 0.08 +0.0 +0.0 0.397
Tigers GM 2021 77–85 $87 69 -20 -6.0 64% +15 +11 +8 -4 $3.3M 20.7 3.0 -5.8 +0.0 -0.2 -0.24 +3.5 +0.0 +0.01 0.06 0.04 -0.2 -9.0 0.475
Tigers GM 2022 66–96 $132 92 -84 -22.8 56% +15 +12 -2 +5 $6.8M 13.1 1.0 -6.2 +18.9 -0.5 -0.09 -4.5 +0.1 +0.02 0.01 0.02 -14.9 -20.2 0.407
Career total (1985+ data) $889 98 -438 -122.3 49% +20 +5 +16 -0 $5.1M 127.1 3.0 -6.7 +47.8 -19.7 -1.04 +1.5 +2.4 +0.03 0.96 0.09 -84.7 -82.8 0.415

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+47.8
Trade-19.7
Free agency+1.5
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.4
Sourcing mix: 59% draft · 34% FA · 3% trade · 3% R5

Trades

Trades made — 19 deals credited to Al Avila, best expected value first; surplus is realized value in $M

2019 · CHC / DET
CHC · Theo Epstein +$8.8M
Nick Castellanos
DET · Al Avila −$8.8M
Alex Lange, Paul Richan
CHC came out ahead by $8.8M
2018 · DET / OAK
DET · Al Avila +$0.8M
Nolan Blackwood, Logan Shore
OAK · Billy Beane −$0.8M
Mike Fiers
DET came out ahead by $0.8M
2016 · TEX / DET
TEX · Jon Daniels +$0.8M
Bryan Holaday
DET · Al Avila −$0.8M
Bobby Wilson, Myles Jaye
TEX came out ahead by $0.8M
2016 · ATL / DET
ATL · John Hart +$2.4M
Mike Aviles, Kade Scivicque
DET · Al Avila −$2.4M
Erick Aybar
ATL came out ahead by $2.4M
2019 · ATL / DET
ATL · Alex Anthopoulos +$4.8M
Shane Greene
DET · Al Avila −$4.8M
Joey Wentz, Travis Demeritte
ATL came out ahead by $4.8M
2016 · DET / ANA
DET · Al Avila +$4.0M
Kody Eaves
ANA · Billy Eppler −$4.0M
Jefry Marte
DET came out ahead by $4.0M
2016 · ANA / DET
ANA · Billy Eppler +$1.6M
Cameron Maybin
DET · Al Avila −$1.6M
Victor Alcántara
ANA came out ahead by $1.6M
2020 · DET / BOS
DET · Al Avila +$0.8M
Jhon Nunez
BOS · Chaim Bloom −$0.8M
Matt Hall
DET came out ahead by $0.8M
2021 · DET / MIL
DET · Al Avila +$43.2M
Reese Olson
MIL · David Stearns −$43.2M
Daniel Norris
DET came out ahead by $43.2M
2017 · DET / TBR
DET · Al Avila +$4.0M
Mikie Mahtook
TBR · Erik Neander −$4.0M
Drew Smith
DET came out ahead by $4.0M
2016 · TEX / DET
TEX · Jon Daniels +$1.6M
Bobby Wilson
DET · Al Avila −$1.6M
Chad Bell
TEX came out ahead by $1.6M
2021 · CIN / DET
CIN · Dick Williams +$4.8M
Nick Quintana
DET · Al Avila −$4.8M
Tucker Barnhart
CIN came out ahead by $4.8M
2020 · CHC / DET
CHC · Theo Epstein +$8.0M
Cameron Maybin
DET · Al Avila −$8.0M
Zack Short
CHC came out ahead by $8.0M
2017 · DET / CHC
DET · Al Avila +$34.4M
Jeimer Candelario, Isaac Paredes
CHC · Theo Epstein −$34.4M
Alex Avila, Justin Wilson
DET came out ahead by $34.4M
2018 · DET / CLE
DET · Al Avila +$8.0M
Willi Castro
CLE · Chris Antonetti −$8.0M
Leonys Martín, Kyle Dowdy
DET came out ahead by $8.0M
2017 · ANA / DET
ANA · Billy Eppler +$1.6M
Ian Kinsler
DET · Al Avila −$1.6M
Troy Montgomery, Wilkel Hernandez
ANA came out ahead by $1.6M
2017 · DET / ANA
DET · Al Avila +$32.0M
Grayson Long, Elvin Rodríguez
ANA · Billy Eppler −$32.0M
Justin Upton
DET came out ahead by $32.0M
2017 · ARI / DET
ARI · Mike Hazen +$28.8M
J. D. Martinez
DET · Al Avila −$28.8M
Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcántara, Jose King
ARI came out ahead by $28.8M
2017 · HOU / DET
HOU · Jeff Luhnow +$196.8M
Justin Verlander, Juan Ramirez
DET · Al Avila −$196.8M
Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, Jake Rogers
HOU came out ahead by $196.8M

Players acquired — 111 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr RFA PPA CPA
Tarik Skubal P DET Draft 2018 6 +19.3 +3.2
Riley Greene OF DET Draft 2022 5 +12.6 +2.5
Jeimer Candelario 3B DET Trade 2017 6 +8.7 +1.4 +1.15 0.2% 0.06%
Niko Goodrum 2B/SS DET Free agency 2017 4 +6.3 +1.6 0.0% 0.04%
Kerry Carpenter DH/OF DET Draft 2022 4 +5.6 +1.4
Jake Rogers C DET Trade 2017 4 +5.3 +1.3 +2.32
Casey Mize P DET Draft 2018 5 +5.0 +1.0
Jordan Zimmermann P DET Trade 2016 5 +5.0 +1.0 5.7% 0.39%
Jonathan Schoop 2B DET Free agency 2019 3 +4.7 +1.6 1.6% 0.35%
Eduardo Rodríguez P DET Free agency 2021 2 +3.7 +1.9 0.0% 0.01%
Javier Báez SS DET Free agency 2021 4 +3.5 +0.9 0.0% 0.03%
Spencer Torkelson 1B DET Draft 2022 4 +2.9 +0.7
Matt Manning P DET Draft 2016 4 +2.7 +0.7
Jason Foley P DET Intl FA 2016 3 +2.6 +0.9
Robbie Grossman OF DET Free agency 2021 1 +2.6 +2.6 0.2% 0.10%
Justin Wilson P DET Trade 2016 2 +2.1 +1.0 -1.39 4.4% 0.31%
Willi Castro 2B/OF DET Trade 2018 3 +2.0 +0.7 +0.00
Akil Baddoo OF DET Rule 5 2020 3 +1.9 +0.6
Justin Upton OF DET Free agency 2016 2 +1.7 +0.8 6.7% 0.45%
José Cisnero P DET Free agency 2018 5 +1.6 +0.3 0.0% 0.00%
Víctor Reyes OF DET Rule 5 2017 3 +1.4 +0.5
Leonys Martín OF DET Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.0% 0.03%
Mike Fiers P DET Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.0% 0.03%
Eric Haase C DET Trade 2021 2 +1.1 +0.5 0.1% 0.04%
Jordy Mercer SS DET Free agency 2018 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.0% 0.02%
Matt Boyd P DET Free agency 2022 6 +0.9 +0.2 4.3% 0.30%
Andrew Chafin P DET Free agency 2022 2 +0.9 +0.5 0.0% 0.02%
Alex Lange P DET Trade 2019 4 +0.9 +0.2 +0.01
Mikie Mahtook OF DET Trade 2017 1 +0.7 +0.7 -0.48 0.4% 0.10%
Wily Peralta P DET Free agency 2021 2 +0.7 +0.4 0.0% 0.03%
Beau Brieske P DET Draft 2022 3 +0.6 +0.2
Mike Pelfrey P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.3% 0.16%
Dustin Garneau C DET Free agency 2020 2 +0.5 +0.3 0.0% 0.02%
Matt Moore P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.0% 0.01%
C. J. Cron 1B DET Free agency 2019 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5% 0.11%
Miguel Díaz P DET Free agency 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.0% 0.00%
Alex Faedo P DET Draft 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2
Francisco Liriano P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0% 0.01%
Alex Presley OF DET Free agency 2016 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1% 0.03%
Daniel Stumpf P DET Trade 2017 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.0% 0.01%
Sawyer Gipson-Long P DET Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.02
Derek Holland P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0% 0.01%
Nick Ramirez P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.3 +0.3
José Ureña P DET Free agency 2020 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0% 0.01%
Tucker Barnhart C DET Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0% 0.00%
Drew Hutchison P DET Free agency 2021 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0% 0.00%
Pete Kozma SS DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0% 0.01%
Erick Aybar SS DET Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7% 0.05%
David McKay P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0% 0.01%
Luis Castillo P DET Draft 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1
Louis Coleman P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0% 0.00%
Miguel Del Pozo P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0% 0.00%
Kyle Funkhouser P DET Draft 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ian Krol P DET Free agency 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0% 0.00%
Dustin Molleken P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1
Efren Navarro 1B/OF DET Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0% 0.01%
John Schreiber P DET Draft 2016 2 +0.1 +0.1
Jim Adduci 1B/OF DET Free agency 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1% 0.01%
Jorge Bonifacio OF DET Free agency 2019 -0.0
William Cuevas P DET Free agency 2016 -0.0
Matt den Dekker OF DET Free agency 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Arcenio León P DET Trade 2017 -0.0
Erasmo Ramírez P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Julio Teherán P DET Free agency 2021 -0.0
Carlos Torres P DET Free agency 2019 -0.0
Joey Wentz P DET Draft 2022 1 -0.0 -0.0
Francisco Rodríguez P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.0 -0.0 2.8% 0.19%
Logan Kensing P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1% 0.00%
Zach McAllister P DET Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Josh Smoker P DET Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Trevor Rosenthal P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Carson Fulmer P DET Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Brandon Dixon 1B/OF DET Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.01%
Sergio Alcántara 2B/3B/SS DET Trade 2017 -0.1 +2.14
Drew Carlton P DET Draft 2017 1 -0.1 -0.1
Brendon Davis 3B/OF DET Draft 2022 -0.1
Ángel De Jesús P DET Draft 2022 -0.1
Josh Lester 1B/DH DET Draft 2022 -0.1
Bobby Parnell P DET Free agency 2016 -0.1
Tyson Ross P DET Free agency 2018 -0.1
Kody Clemens 1B DET Draft 2022 -0.2
Nomar Mazara OF DET Free agency 2021 -0.2
Casey McGehee 3B DET Free agency 2016 -0.2
Austin Meadows DH/OF DET Trade 2022 -0.2 +0.04
Iván Nova P DET Free agency 2020 -0.2
Renato Núñez 3B/DH DET Free agency 2021 -0.2
Jacob Robson OF DET Draft 2016 -0.2
Chad Bell P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.3 -0.3 +0.11
Reed Garrett P DET Rule 5 2018 -0.3
Myles Jaye P DET Trade 2016 -0.3 +0.15
Edward Mujica P DET Free agency 2017 -0.3
Isaac Paredes 3B DET Trade 2017 -0.3 +1.15
Ronny Rodríguez 2B/SS DET Trade 2018 1 -0.3 -0.3
Victor Alcántara P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.4 -0.4 +0.15
Daz Cameron OF DET Trade 2017 -0.4 +2.32
Rony García P DET Rule 5 2019 1 -0.4 -0.4
Michael Pineda P DET Free agency 2022 -0.4
Austin Romine C DET Free agency 2019 -0.4
Justyn-Henry Malloy DH/OF DET Trade 2022 -0.5 +0.04
Bobby Wilson C DET Free agency 2018 -0.5
John Hicks C/1B DET Trade 2016 3 -0.5 -0.2 0.2% 0.01%
Gordon Beckham 2B DET Free agency 2019 -0.6
Bryan Garcia P DET Draft 2016 1 -0.6 -0.6
Garrett Hill P DET Draft 2022 -0.7
Dawel Lugo 2B/3B DET Trade 2017 -0.7 +2.14
Ryan Carpenter P DET Trade 2018 -0.9
Travis Demeritte OF DET Trade 2019 -0.9 +0.01
Josh Harrison 2B/3B DET Free agency 2019 -0.9
Ryan Kreidler 3B/SS DET Draft 2022 1 -0.9 -0.9
Elvin Rodríguez P DET Draft 2022 -1.0
Zack Short SS DET Trade 2020 -1.1 +0.00

Trade-side columns: RFA is playoff-readiness percentage points added to the future roster foundation. It grades the franchise's entire side of a trade, so the same score repeats for every player acquired in that package. PPA/CPA remain player-level arrival-year probability points.

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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