Rosternomics
AA

Al Avila

Born 1959 · Havana · age 67

General manager for the Tigers (2016–2022).

Across the full 7-season sample, the measured profile stands out most for traded-for surplus (88th percentile). The clearest contrast is payroll-adjusted roster quality (1st percentile): the measured clubs have produced less roster quality relative to payroll-based expectations than most peers.

7 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

0 pennants · 0 playoff appearances · 427–601 (0.415)

Percentile Rankings

vs. execs with toyrs exp.
PoorAverageGreat
Trade Decision Quality
Roster Construction
Depth
3.0
Dead WAR
-6.7
Dead money %
49%
PoorAverageGreat
Talent Creation
Cheap-talent surplus
$20M
Drafted surplus
$5M
Traded-for surplus
$16M
Int'l surplus
$-0M
Results & Efficiency
GM WAR
-7.3
TAB
-82.8
WAB
-84.7
$ / WAR
$5.1M
Net WAR/trade
-1.04

Overview

TeamRoleYear Pay
$M
Rel
Pay
Surp
$M
Surp
WAR
Dead
%
Cheap
$M
Draft
$M
Trd
$M
Int'l
$M
$ /
WAR
WAR Depth Dead
WAR
HG Trade Net/
Trd
FA R5 RFA PPA CPA WAB TAB W-L% POPenWS
Tigers GM 2016 86–75 $197 157 -72 -22.2 7% +28 +9 +19 +0 $4.6M 38.4 6.0 -4.4 +4.8 -1.3 -0.42 +4.8 -0.1 +0.14 4.08 0.27 -1.1 -1.0 0.534
Tigers GM 2017 64–98 $168 129 -88 -26.0 36% +26 -1 +29 -3 $5.4M 23.9 6.0 -7.2 -0.1 -17.9 -3.58 +7.0 +1.3 +2.02 0.37 0.08 -21.1 -13.3 0.395
Tigers GM 2018 64–98 $113 87 -65 -19.1 33% +12 -4 +18 -2 $5.1M 14.0 2.0 -8.0 +24.3 +0.8 +0.78 -10.5 -0.3 +0.05 0.02 0.02 -16.1 -18.5 0.395
Tigers GM 2019 47–114 $101 78 -67 -20.4 61% +15 +1 +14 -0 $4.9M 10.3 3.0 -10.5 +0.0 +0.3 +0.13 +3.0 -0.4 +0.01 0.02 0.02 -31.3 -20.9 0.292
Tigers GM 2020 23–35 $92 78 -43 -5.9 87% +31 +6 +25 -1 $7.8M 6.6 0.0 -5.1 +0.0 -0.8 -0.80 -1.9 +1.8 +0.00 0.42 0.08 +0.0 +0.0 0.397
Tigers GM 2021 77–85 $87 69 -20 -6.0 64% +15 +11 +8 -4 $3.3M 20.7 3.0 -5.8 +0.0 -0.2 -0.24 +2.3 +0.0 +0.01 0.07 0.04 -0.2 -9.0 0.475
Tigers GM 2022 66–96 $132 92 -84 -22.8 56% +15 +12 -2 +5 $6.8M 13.1 1.0 -6.2 +20.9 -0.5 -0.09 -4.5 +0.1 +0.02 0.01 0.02 -14.9 -20.2 0.407
Career total (1985+ data) $889 98 -438 -122.3 49% +20 +5 +16 -0 $5.1M 127.1 3.0 -6.7 +49.9 -19.7 -1.04 +0.2 +2.4 +0.03 0.99 0.09 -84.7 -82.8 0.415 –– –

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+49.9
Trade-19.7
Free agency+0.2
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.4
Sourcing mix: 60% draft · 33% FA · 3% trade · 3% R5

Trades

Trades made — 19 deals credited to Al Avila, best expected value first; surplus is realized value in $M

2019 · CHC / DET
CHC · Theo Epstein +$8.8M
Nick Castellanos
DET · Al Avila −$8.8M
Alex Lange, Paul Richan
CHC came out ahead by $8.8M
2018 · DET / OAK
DET · Al Avila +$0.8M
Nolan Blackwood, Logan Shore
OAK · Billy Beane −$0.8M
Mike Fiers
DET came out ahead by $0.8M
2016 · TEX / DET
TEX · Jon Daniels +$0.8M
Bryan Holaday
DET · Al Avila −$0.8M
Bobby Wilson, Myles Jaye
TEX came out ahead by $0.8M
2016 · ATL / DET
ATL · John Hart +$2.4M
Mike Aviles, Kade Scivicque
DET · Al Avila −$2.4M
Erick Aybar
ATL came out ahead by $2.4M
2019 · ATL / DET
ATL · Alex Anthopoulos +$4.8M
Shane Greene
DET · Al Avila −$4.8M
Joey Wentz, Travis Demeritte
ATL came out ahead by $4.8M
2016 · DET / ANA
DET · Al Avila +$4.0M
Kody Eaves
ANA · Billy Eppler −$4.0M
Jefry Marte
DET came out ahead by $4.0M
2016 · ANA / DET
ANA · Billy Eppler +$1.6M
Cameron Maybin
DET · Al Avila −$1.6M
Victor Alcántara
ANA came out ahead by $1.6M
2020 · DET / BOS
DET · Al Avila +$0.8M
Jhon Nunez
BOS · Chaim Bloom −$0.8M
Matt Hall
DET came out ahead by $0.8M
2021 · DET / MIL
DET · Al Avila +$43.2M
Reese Olson
MIL · David Stearns −$43.2M
Daniel Norris
DET came out ahead by $43.2M
2017 · DET / TBR
DET · Al Avila +$4.0M
Mikie Mahtook
TBR · Erik Neander −$4.0M
Drew Smith
DET came out ahead by $4.0M
2016 · TEX / DET
TEX · Jon Daniels +$1.6M
Bobby Wilson
DET · Al Avila −$1.6M
Chad Bell
TEX came out ahead by $1.6M
2021 · CIN / DET
CIN · Dick Williams +$4.8M
Nick Quintana
DET · Al Avila −$4.8M
Tucker Barnhart
CIN came out ahead by $4.8M
2020 · CHC / DET
CHC · Theo Epstein +$8.0M
Cameron Maybin
DET · Al Avila −$8.0M
Zack Short
CHC came out ahead by $8.0M
2017 · DET / CHC
DET · Al Avila +$34.4M
Jeimer Candelario, Isaac Paredes
CHC · Theo Epstein −$34.4M
Alex Avila, Justin Wilson
DET came out ahead by $34.4M
2018 · DET / CLE
DET · Al Avila +$8.0M
Willi Castro
CLE · Chris Antonetti −$8.0M
Leonys Martín, Kyle Dowdy
DET came out ahead by $8.0M
2017 · ANA / DET
ANA · Billy Eppler +$1.6M
Ian Kinsler
DET · Al Avila −$1.6M
Troy Montgomery, Wilkel Hernandez
ANA came out ahead by $1.6M
2017 · DET / ANA
DET · Al Avila +$32.0M
Grayson Long, Elvin Rodríguez
ANA · Billy Eppler −$32.0M
Justin Upton
DET came out ahead by $32.0M
2017 · ARI / DET
ARI · Mike Hazen +$28.8M
J. D. Martinez
DET · Al Avila −$28.8M
Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcántara, Jose King
ARI came out ahead by $28.8M
2017 · HOU / DET
HOU · Jeff Luhnow +$196.0M
Justin Verlander, Juan Ramirez
DET · Al Avila −$196.0M
Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, Jake Rogers
HOU came out ahead by $196.0M

Players acquired — 111 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr RFA PPA CPA
Tarik Skubal P DET Draft 2018 6 +19.3 +3.2 – – –
Riley Greene OF DET Draft 2022 5 +13.3 +2.7 – – –
Jeimer Candelario 3B DET Trade 2017 6 +8.7 +1.4 +1.15 0.3% 0.05%
Niko Goodrum 2B/SS DET Free agency 2017 4 +6.3 +1.6 – 0.0% 0.04%
Kerry Carpenter DH/OF DET Draft 2022 4 +5.6 +1.4 – – –
Jake Rogers C DET Trade 2017 5 +5.3 +1.1 +2.32 – –
Casey Mize P DET Draft 2018 5 +5.0 +1.0 – – –
Jordan Zimmermann P DET Trade 2016 5 +5.0 +1.0 – 5.9% 0.38%
Jonathan Schoop 2B DET Free agency 2019 3 +4.7 +1.6 – 1.7% 0.35%
Spencer Torkelson 1B DET Draft 2022 4 +4.1 +1.0 – – –
Eduardo Rodríguez P DET Free agency 2021 2 +3.7 +1.9 – 0.0% 0.01%
Javier Báez SS DET Free agency 2021 3 +3.3 +1.1 – 0.0% 0.03%
Matt Manning P DET Draft 2016 4 +2.7 +0.7 – – –
Jason Foley P DET Intl FA 2016 3 +2.6 +0.9 – – –
Robbie Grossman OF DET Free agency 2021 1 +2.6 +2.6 – 0.2% 0.09%
Justin Wilson P DET Trade 2016 2 +2.1 +1.0 -1.39 4.6% 0.30%
Willi Castro 2B/OF DET Trade 2018 3 +2.0 +0.7 +0.00 – –
Akil Baddoo OF DET Rule 5 2020 3 +1.9 +0.6 – – –
Justin Upton OF DET Free agency 2016 2 +1.7 +0.8 – 6.8% 0.45%
José Cisnero P DET Free agency 2018 5 +1.6 +0.3 – 0.0% 0.00%
Víctor Reyes OF DET Rule 5 2017 3 +1.4 +0.5 – – –
Leonys Martín OF DET Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 – 0.0% 0.03%
Mike Fiers P DET Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 – 0.0% 0.03%
Eric Haase C DET Trade 2021 2 +1.1 +0.5 – 0.1% 0.04%
Jordy Mercer SS DET Free agency 2018 1 +1.0 +1.0 – 0.0% 0.02%
Matt Boyd P DET Free agency 2022 6 +0.9 +0.2 – 4.5% 0.29%
Andrew Chafin P DET Free agency 2022 2 +0.9 +0.5 – 0.0% 0.02%
Alex Lange P DET Trade 2019 4 +0.9 +0.2 +0.01 – –
Beau Brieske P DET Draft 2022 4 +0.7 +0.2 – – –
Mikie Mahtook OF DET Trade 2017 1 +0.7 +0.7 -0.48 0.5% 0.10%
Wily Peralta P DET Free agency 2021 2 +0.7 +0.4 – 0.1% 0.03%
Mike Pelfrey P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.6 +0.6 – 2.3% 0.15%
Dustin Garneau C DET Free agency 2020 2 +0.5 +0.3 – 0.0% 0.02%
Matt Moore P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5 – 0.0% 0.01%
C. J. Cron 1B DET Free agency 2019 1 +0.4 +0.4 – 0.6% 0.10%
Miguel Díaz P DET Free agency 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2 – 0.0% 0.00%
Alex Faedo P DET Draft 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2 – – –
Francisco Liriano P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.4 +0.4 – 0.0% 0.01%
Alex Presley OF DET Free agency 2016 1 +0.4 +0.4 – 0.1% 0.03%
Daniel Stumpf P DET Trade 2017 2 +0.4 +0.2 – 0.0% 0.01%
Sawyer Gipson-Long P DET Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.02 – –
Derek Holland P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 – 0.0% 0.01%
Nick Ramirez P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.3 +0.3 – – –
José Ureña P DET Free agency 2020 1 +0.3 +0.3 – 0.0% 0.01%
Tucker Barnhart C DET Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 – 0.0% 0.00%
Drew Hutchison P DET Free agency 2021 2 +0.2 +0.1 – 0.0% 0.00%
Pete Kozma SS DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.2 +0.2 – 0.0% 0.00%
Erick Aybar SS DET Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 – 0.7% 0.05%
David McKay P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 – 0.0% 0.01%
Luis Castillo P DET Draft 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 – – –
Louis Coleman P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 – 0.0% 0.00%
Miguel Del Pozo P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 – 0.0% 0.00%
Kyle Funkhouser P DET Draft 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 – – –
Ian Krol P DET Free agency 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 – 0.0% 0.00%
Dustin Molleken P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 – – –
Efren Navarro 1B/OF DET Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 – 0.0% 0.01%
John Schreiber P DET Draft 2016 2 +0.1 +0.1 – – –
Jim Adduci 1B/OF DET Free agency 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.1% 0.01%
Jorge Bonifacio OF DET Free agency 2019 – -0.0 – – – –
William Cuevas P DET Free agency 2016 – -0.0 – – – –
Matt den Dekker OF DET Free agency 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Arcenio León P DET Trade 2017 – -0.0 – – – –
Erasmo Ramírez P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Julio Teherán P DET Free agency 2021 – -0.0 – – – –
Carlos Torres P DET Free agency 2019 – -0.0 – – – –
Joey Wentz P DET Draft 2022 1 -0.0 -0.0 – – –
Francisco Rodríguez P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.0 -0.0 – 2.9% 0.19%
Logan Kensing P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.1% 0.00%
Zach McAllister P DET Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Josh Smoker P DET Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Trevor Rosenthal P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Carson Fulmer P DET Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Brandon Dixon 1B/OF DET Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 – 0.0% 0.00%
Sergio Alcántara 2B/3B/SS DET Trade 2017 – -0.1 – +2.14 – –
Drew Carlton P DET Draft 2017 1 -0.1 -0.1 – – –
Brendon Davis 3B/OF DET Draft 2022 – -0.1 – – – –
Ángel De Jesús P DET Draft 2022 – -0.1 – – – –
Josh Lester 1B/DH DET Draft 2022 – -0.1 – – – –
Bobby Parnell P DET Free agency 2016 – -0.1 – – – –
Tyson Ross P DET Free agency 2018 – -0.1 – – – –
Kody Clemens 1B DET Draft 2022 – -0.2 – – – –
Nomar Mazara OF DET Free agency 2021 – -0.2 – – – –
Casey McGehee 3B DET Free agency 2016 – -0.2 – – – –
Austin Meadows DH/OF DET Trade 2022 – -0.2 – +0.04 – –
Iván Nova P DET Free agency 2020 – -0.2 – – – –
Renato Núñez 3B/DH DET Free agency 2021 – -0.2 – – – –
Jacob Robson OF DET Draft 2016 – -0.2 – – – –
Chad Bell P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.3 -0.3 +0.11 – –
Reed Garrett P DET Rule 5 2018 – -0.3 – – – –
Myles Jaye P DET Trade 2016 – -0.3 – +0.15 – –
Edward Mujica P DET Free agency 2017 – -0.3 – – – –
Isaac Paredes 3B DET Trade 2017 – -0.3 – +1.15 – –
Ronny Rodríguez 2B/SS DET Trade 2018 1 -0.3 -0.3 – – –
Victor Alcántara P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.4 -0.4 +0.15 – –
Daz Cameron OF DET Trade 2017 – -0.4 – +2.32 – –
Rony García P DET Rule 5 2019 1 -0.4 -0.4 – – –
Michael Pineda P DET Free agency 2022 – -0.4 – – – –
Austin Romine C DET Free agency 2019 – -0.4 – – – –
Justyn-Henry Malloy DH/OF DET Trade 2022 – -0.5 – +0.04 – –
Bobby Wilson C DET Free agency 2018 – -0.5 – – – –
John Hicks C/1B DET Trade 2016 3 -0.5 -0.2 – 0.2% 0.01%
Gordon Beckham 2B DET Free agency 2019 – -0.6 – – – –
Bryan Garcia P DET Draft 2016 1 -0.6 -0.6 – – –
Garrett Hill P DET Draft 2022 – -0.7 – – – –
Dawel Lugo 2B/3B DET Trade 2017 – -0.7 – +2.14 – –
Ryan Carpenter P DET Trade 2018 – -0.9 – – – –
Travis Demeritte OF DET Trade 2019 – -0.9 – +0.01 – –
Josh Harrison 2B/3B DET Free agency 2019 – -0.9 – – – –
Ryan Kreidler 3B/SS DET Draft 2022 1 -0.9 -0.9 – – –
Elvin Rodríguez P DET Draft 2022 – -1.0 – – – –
Zack Short SS DET Trade 2020 – -1.1 – +0.00 – –

Trade-side columns: RFA is playoff-readiness percentage points added to the future roster foundation. It grades the franchise's entire side of a trade, so the same score repeats for every player acquired in that package. PPA/CPA remain player-level arrival-year probability points.

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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