RRosternomics
AA

Al Avila

Born 1959 · Havana · age 67

General manager for the Tigers (2016–2022).

7 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record427–601
Win %0.415
-7.3GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.4189th/195 execs
3.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)187th/195 execs
-6.7Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)170th/195 execs
49%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)179th/195 execs
$20MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track70th/195 execs
$5MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)105th/195 execs
$16MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade26th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees178th/195 execs
-82.8TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total193rd/195 execs
-84.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)194th/195 execs
0.92Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)129th/195 execs
-438Roster surplus $M185th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Tigers GM 2016–2022 6 -84.8 -14.13 -82.8 -122.4 +52.7 -19.6 +2.3 +2.4 0.92 0.415 -438
Career total (1985+ data) 7 -84.8 -82.8 -122.4 +52.7 -19.6 +2.3 +2.4 0.92 0.415 -438

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+52.7
Trade-19.6
Free agency+2.3
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.4
Sourcing mix: 62% draft · 32% FA · 3% trade · 3% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Al Avila's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 111 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Tarik Skubal P DET Draft 2018 6 +21.1 +3.5
Riley Greene OF DET Draft 2022 5 +12.9 +2.6
Jeimer Candelario 3B DET Trade 2017 6 +8.7 +1.4 0.2
Casey Mize P DET Draft 2018 5 +7.5 +1.5
Niko Goodrum 2B/SS DET Free agency 2017 4 +6.3 +1.6 0.0
Kerry Carpenter DH/OF DET Draft 2022 4 +6.1 +1.5
Jake Rogers C DET Trade 2017 5 +5.3 +1.1
Jordan Zimmermann P DET Trade 2016 5 +5.0 +1.0 6.2
Jonathan Schoop 2B DET Free agency 2019 3 +4.7 +1.6 1.6
Eduardo Rodríguez P DET Free agency 2021 2 +3.7 +1.9 0.0
Javier Báez SS DET Free agency 2021 3 +3.3 +1.1 0.0
Spencer Torkelson 1B DET Draft 2022 3 +2.8 +0.9
Matt Manning P DET Draft 2016 4 +2.7 +0.7
Jason Foley P DET Intl FA 2016 3 +2.6 +0.9
Robbie Grossman OF DET Free agency 2021 1 +2.6 +2.6 0.2
Justin Wilson P DET Trade 2016 2 +2.1 +1.0 4.9
Willi Castro 2B/OF DET Trade 2018 3 +2.0 +0.7
Akil Baddoo OF DET Rule 5 2020 3 +1.9 +0.6
Justin Upton OF DET Free agency 2016 2 +1.7 +0.8 7.3
José Cisnero P DET Free agency 2018 5 +1.6 +0.3 0.0
Víctor Reyes OF DET Rule 5 2017 3 +1.4 +0.5
Leonys Martín OF DET Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.0
Mike Fiers P DET Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.0
Eric Haase C DET Trade 2021 2 +1.1 +0.5 0.1
Jordy Mercer SS DET Free agency 2018 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.0
Matt Boyd P DET Free agency 2022 6 +0.9 +0.2
Andrew Chafin P DET Free agency 2022 2 +0.9 +0.5 0.0
Alex Lange P DET Trade 2019 4 +0.9 +0.2
Mikie Mahtook OF DET Trade 2017 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.4
Wily Peralta P DET Free agency 2021 2 +0.7 +0.4 0.0
Beau Brieske P DET Draft 2022 3 +0.6 +0.2
Mike Pelfrey P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.5
Dustin Garneau C DET Free agency 2020 2 +0.5 +0.3 0.0
Matt Moore P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.0
C. J. Cron 1B DET Free agency 2019 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
Miguel Díaz P DET Free agency 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.0
Alex Faedo P DET Draft 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2
Francisco Liriano P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0
Alex Presley OF DET Free agency 2016 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Daniel Stumpf P DET Trade 2017 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.0
Derek Holland P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Nick Ramirez P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.3 +0.3
José Ureña P DET Free agency 2020 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Tucker Barnhart C DET Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Sawyer Gipson-Long P DET Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2
Drew Hutchison P DET Free agency 2021 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Pete Kozma SS DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Erick Aybar SS DET Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
David McKay P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Luis Castillo P DET Draft 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1
Louis Coleman P DET Free agency 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Miguel Del Pozo P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Kyle Funkhouser P DET Draft 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ian Krol P DET Free agency 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Dustin Molleken P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1
Efren Navarro 1B/OF DET Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
John Schreiber P DET Draft 2016 2 +0.1 +0.1
Jim Adduci 1B/OF DET Free agency 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Jorge Bonifacio OF DET Free agency 2019 -0.0
William Cuevas P DET Free agency 2016 -0.0
Matt den Dekker OF DET Free agency 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Arcenio León P DET Trade 2017 -0.0
Erasmo Ramírez P DET Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Julio Teherán P DET Free agency 2021 -0.0
Carlos Torres P DET Free agency 2019 -0.0
Joey Wentz P DET Draft 2022 1 -0.0 -0.0
Francisco Rodríguez P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.0 -0.0 3.1
Logan Kensing P DET Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Zach McAllister P DET Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Josh Smoker P DET Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Trevor Rosenthal P DET Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Carson Fulmer P DET Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Brandon Dixon 1B/OF DET Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Sergio Alcántara 2B/3B/SS DET Trade 2017 -0.1
Drew Carlton P DET Draft 2017 1 -0.1 -0.1
Brendon Davis 3B/OF DET Draft 2022 -0.1
Ángel De Jesús P DET Draft 2022 -0.1
Josh Lester 1B/DH DET Draft 2022 -0.1
Bobby Parnell P DET Free agency 2016 -0.1
Tyson Ross P DET Free agency 2018 -0.1
Kody Clemens 1B DET Draft 2022 -0.2
Nomar Mazara OF DET Free agency 2021 -0.2
Casey McGehee 3B DET Free agency 2016 -0.2
Austin Meadows DH/OF DET Trade 2022 -0.2
Iván Nova P DET Free agency 2020 -0.2
Renato Núñez 3B/DH DET Free agency 2021 -0.2
Jacob Robson OF DET Draft 2016 -0.2
Chad Bell P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.3 -0.3
Reed Garrett P DET Rule 5 2018 -0.3
Myles Jaye P DET Trade 2016 -0.3
Edward Mujica P DET Free agency 2017 -0.3
Isaac Paredes 3B DET Trade 2017 -0.3
Ronny Rodríguez 2B/SS DET Trade 2018 1 -0.3 -0.3
Victor Alcántara P DET Trade 2016 1 -0.4 -0.4
Daz Cameron OF DET Trade 2017 -0.4
Rony García P DET Rule 5 2019 1 -0.4 -0.4
Michael Pineda P DET Free agency 2022 -0.4
Austin Romine C DET Free agency 2019 -0.4
Justyn-Henry Malloy DH/OF DET Trade 2022 1 -0.5 -0.5
Bobby Wilson C DET Free agency 2018 -0.5
John Hicks C/1B DET Trade 2016 3 -0.5 -0.2 0.2
Gordon Beckham 2B DET Free agency 2019 -0.6
Bryan Garcia P DET Draft 2016 1 -0.6 -0.6
Garrett Hill P DET Draft 2022 -0.7
Dawel Lugo 2B/3B DET Trade 2017 -0.7
Ryan Carpenter P DET Trade 2018 -0.9
Travis Demeritte OF DET Trade 2019 -0.9
Josh Harrison 2B/3B DET Free agency 2019 -0.9
Ryan Kreidler 3B/SS DET Draft 2022 1 -0.9 -0.9
Elvin Rodríguez P DET Draft 2022 -1.0
Zack Short SS DET Trade 2020 -1.1

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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