RRosternomics
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Tigers DET

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GM: Al Avila

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.57× league · TAB -1.1
-1.1TAB — talent above budget18th/30
-1.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
7%dead money %1st/30
0.534win %11th/30
38.4roster fWAR10th/30
-72surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$197Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFCameron Maybin 91GAnthony Gose 30GTyler Collins 29G
LFJustin Upton 146GTyler Collins 13GAlex Presley 13G
RFJ.D. Martinez 118GMike Aviles 32GSteven Moya 18G
SSJose Iglesias 136GErick Aybar 104GAndrew Romine 14G
2BIan Kinsler 151GAndrew Romine 12GMike Aviles 10G
3BNick Castellanos 108GAndrew Romine 44GCasey McGehee 27G
1BMiguel Cabrera 147GAndrew Romine 20GJarrod Saltalamacchia 11G
STARTERSJustin Verlander 5.4WARMichael Fulmer 3.1WARJordan Zimmermann 1.4WARDaniel Norris 1.2WARMatthew Boyd 1.1WAR
CJames McCann 99GJarrod Saltalamacchia 68G
DHVictor Martinez 138GMiguel Cabrera 8GJames McCann 5G
BULLPEN★ Francisco Rodríguez 44svJustin Wilson 25hShane Greene 16hAlex Wilson 14hMark Lowe 8hBruce Rondón 6hKyle Ryan 4hBlaine Hardy 0h
CJames McCann 99 · Jarrod Saltalamacchia 68
1BMiguel Cabrera 147 · Andrew Romine 20 · Jarrod Saltalamacchia 11
2BIan Kinsler 151 · Andrew Romine 12 · Mike Aviles 10
3BNick Castellanos 108 · Andrew Romine 44 · Casey McGehee 27
SSJose Iglesias 136 · Erick Aybar 104 · Andrew Romine 14
LFJustin Upton 146 · Tyler Collins 13 · Alex Presley 13
CFCameron Maybin 91 · Anthony Gose 30 · Tyler Collins 29
RFJ.D. Martinez 118 · Mike Aviles 32 · Steven Moya 18
DHVictor Martinez 138 · Miguel Cabrera 8 · James McCann 5
SPJustin Verlander 5.4 · Michael Fulmer 3.1 · Jordan Zimmermann 1.4 · Daniel Norris 1.2 · Matthew Boyd 1.1
BP★ Francisco Rodríguez 44 · Justin Wilson 25 · Shane Greene 16 · Alex Wilson 14 · Mark Lowe 8 · Bruce Rondón 6 · Kyle Ryan 4 · Blaine Hardy 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ian Kinsler 34 FA-elig 1535.4 14.0 +3.6
Justin Verlander 33 FA-elig 345.4 28.0 -10.6
Miguel Cabrera 33 FA-elig 1585.3 28.0 -10.7
Michael Fulmer 23 – 263.1 0.4 +9.6
J.D. Martinez 28 arb 1202.5 6.8 +1.4
Nick Castellanos 24 arb 1102.3 0.5 +7.0
Cameron Maybin 29 FA-elig 942.0 8.0 -1.6
Jose Iglesias 26 arb 1371.7 2.1 +3.5
Justin Upton 28 FA-elig 1531.7 22.1 -16.7
Jordan Zimmermann 30 FA-elig 191.4 18.0 -13.3
Shane Greene 27 pre-arb 501.3 0.5 +3.7
Daniel Norris 23 pre-arb 141.2 0.5 +3.3
Justin Wilson 28 arb 661.1 1.5 +2.1
Matthew Boyd 25 pre-arb 201.1 0.3 +3.3
Alex Wilson 29 arb 621.0 0.5 +2.7
Victor Martinez 37 FA-elig 1540.9 18.0 -14.9
Aníbal Sánchez 32 FA-elig 350.9 16.8 -14.0
Francisco Rodríguez 34 FA-elig 610.7 7.5 -5.2
Kyle Ryan 24 pre-arb 560.6 0.5 +1.5
James McCann 26 pre-arb 1050.6 0.5 +1.5
Mike Pelfrey 32 FA-elig 240.6 8.0 -6.2
Andrew Romine 30 FA-elig 1090.4 0.9 +0.5
Bruce Rondón 25 pre-arb 370.4 0.3 +1.0
Tyler Collins 26 pre-arb 560.3 0.5 +0.4
Erick Aybar↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 290.2 2.0 -1.4
Warwick Saupold 26 pre-arb 60.2 0.0 +0.5
Dixon Machado 24 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.4
Blaine Hardy 29 pre-arb 210.1 0.5 -0.1
Dustin Molleken 31 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.3
John Hicks 26 pre-arb 10.1 0.1 +0.1
Logan Kensing 33 arb 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Alex Presley↔ MIL 30 arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Joe Mantiply 25 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Buck Farmer 25 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.5 -0.8
JaCoby Jones 24 – 13-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Bobby Parnell 31 – 6-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Bobby Wilson↔ TBR 33 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Drew VerHagen 25 pre-arb 19-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Casey McGehee 33 FA-elig 30-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Anthony Gose 25 arb 30-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Mark Lowe 33 FA-elig 54-0.4 5.5 -6.7
Steven Moya 24 pre-arb 31-0.4 0.2 -1.5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 31 FA-elig 92-1.1 0.5 -4.2
Mike Aviles 35 – 68-1.3 1.5 -5.7

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Michael Fulmer3.1
Cameron Maybin2.0
Justin Upton1.7
Jordan Zimmermann1.4
Justin Wilson1.1
Francisco Rodríguez0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
David Price4.0
Yoenis Cespedes3.3
Alfredo Simon1.3
Rajai Davis1.0
Kyle Lobstein0.5
Al Alburquerque0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$196.8M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Miguel Cabrera3312.101$28.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Verlander3310.002$28.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Upton288.060$22.1MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez3712.114$18.0MFREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann306.154$18.0MFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez329.099$16.8MFREE AGENT
Ian Kinsler3410.000$14.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Pelfrey328.122$8.0MFREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin296.073$8.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Rodríguez3412.115$7.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Lowe337.159$5.5MFREE AGENT
Erick Aybar329.086$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Aviles357.091$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia318.031$507kFREE AGENT
Casey McGehee336.028$144kFREE AGENT
Bobby Parnell316.132$47kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
J.D. Martinez284.036$6.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Iglesias263.036$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Wilson283.035$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Romine303.049$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing334.086$42kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wilson334.058$21kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Presley303.016$11kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Nick Castellanos242.029$536kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Gose252.082$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wilson292.038$522kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Hardy291.106$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James McCann261.028$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Greene271.075$517kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Norris230.122$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Collins261.080$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Ryan240.113$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buck Farmer250.128$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew VerHagen250.029$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Fulmer230.000$435kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Rondón252.103$294kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd250.067$280kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Moya240.055$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JaCoby Jones240.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dixon Machado240.038$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Molleken310.034$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Hicks260.038$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Mantiply250.000$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Warwick Saupold261.035$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Tigers 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.