TEX⇄DET

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$0.8M net +0.7

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Bryan HoladayC·28y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.6/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.34/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Al Avila net −$0.8M net -0.7

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $21M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Myles JayeP·24y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#516 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bobby WilsonC·33y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.