DET⇄BOS

DETDET Al Avila net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2020 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jhon Nunez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

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BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net −$0.8M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2020 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt HallP·26y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#190 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.