ANA⇄DET

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$1.6M net +1.8

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2017 odds 3% → 4% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cameron MaybinOF·30y·R/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.33/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Al Avila net −$1.6M net -1.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2017 odds 2% → 2% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Victor AlcántaraP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.