RRosternomics
𝕏

Tigers DET

‹ ›

GM: Al Avila

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB -18.4
-18.4TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-16.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-8.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
33%dead money %15th/30
0.395win %26th/30
14.0roster fWAR29th/30
-65surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$113Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFJaCoby Jones 67GVictor Reyes 21GMike Gerber 4G
LFJaCoby Jones 55GMikie Mahtook 54GVictor Reyes 34G
RFNick Castellanos 142GVictor Reyes 9GNiko Goodrum 8G
SSJose Iglesias 122GRonny Rodríguez 24GPete Kozma 15G
2BNiko Goodrum 64GDixon Machado 64GDawel Lugo 27G
3BJeimer Candelario 140GRonny Rodríguez 12GNiko Goodrum 10G
1BJohn Hicks 59GJames Adduci 48GNiko Goodrum 37G
STARTERSMatthew Boyd 2.2WARMichael Fulmer 1.4WARBlaine Hardy 1.3WARJordan Zimmermann 1.0WARFrancisco Liriano 0.4WAR
CJames McCann 114GGrayson Greiner 30GJohn Hicks 21G
DHVictor Martinez 123GVictor Reyes 23GNick Castellanos 14G
BULLPEN★ Shane Greene 32svJoe Jiménez 23hAlex Wilson 14hDaniel Stumpf 11hBuck Farmer 8hLouis Coleman 6hZach McAllister 4hDrew VerHagen 3h
CJames McCann 114 · Grayson Greiner 30 · John Hicks 21
1BJohn Hicks 59 · James Adduci 48 · Niko Goodrum 37
2BNiko Goodrum 64 · Dixon Machado 64 · Dawel Lugo 27
3BJeimer Candelario 140 · Ronny Rodríguez 12 · Niko Goodrum 10
SSJose Iglesias 122 · Ronny Rodríguez 24 · Pete Kozma 15
LFJaCoby Jones 55 · Mikie Mahtook 54 · Victor Reyes 34
CFJaCoby Jones 67 · Victor Reyes 21 · Mike Gerber 4
RFNick Castellanos 142 · Victor Reyes 9 · Niko Goodrum 8
DHVictor Martinez 123 · Victor Reyes 23 · Nick Castellanos 14
SPMatthew Boyd 2.2 · Michael Fulmer 1.4 · Blaine Hardy 1.3 · Jordan Zimmermann 1.0 · Francisco Liriano 0.4
BP★ Shane Greene 32 · Joe Jiménez 23 · Alex Wilson 14 · Daniel Stumpf 11 · Buck Farmer 8 · Louis Coleman 6 · Zach McAllister 4 · Drew VerHagen 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matthew Boyd 27 arb 312.2 0.6 +6.8
Jeimer Candelario 24 pre-arb 1442.0 0.5 +6.4
Nick Castellanos 26 arb 1572.0 6.0 +0.7
Niko Goodrum 26 pre-arb 1311.8 0.5 +5.7
Jose Iglesias 28 FA-elig 1251.6 6.3 -1.0
Joe Jiménez 23 pre-arb 681.4 0.5 +4.3
Michael Fulmer 25 pre-arb 241.4 0.6 +4.1
Mike Fiers↔ OAK 33 FA-elig 211.3 4.1 +0.5
Blaine Hardy 31 arb 301.3 0.8 +3.7
Leonys Martin↔ CLE 30 FA-elig 781.3 1.6 +2.7
Jordan Zimmermann 32 FA-elig 251.0 24.0 -20.7
Miguel Cabrera 35 FA-elig 380.8 30.0 -27.4
Drew VerHagen 27 arb 410.6 0.6 +1.6
JaCoby Jones 26 pre-arb 1290.5 0.5 +1.0
Spencer Turnbull 25 – 40.5 0.1 +1.5
Francisco Liriano 34 FA-elig 270.4 4.0 -2.5
Artie Lewicki 26 pre-arb 130.4 0.3 +0.9
Daniel Norris 25 arb 110.3 0.6 +0.6
Daniel Stumpf 27 pre-arb 560.3 0.6 +0.4
Alex Wilson 31 arb 590.2 1.9 -1.1
Pete Kozma 30 arb 270.2 0.1 +0.6
Louis Coleman 32 arb 510.1 0.4 -0.0
Christin Stewart 24 – 170.1 0.1 +0.3
Buck Farmer 27 arb 660.1 0.6 -0.3
John Hicks 28 arb 810.1 0.6 -0.3
Victor Alcántara 25 pre-arb 270.1 0.2 -0.0
Harold Castro 24 – 60.1 0.0 +0.1
Chad Bell 29 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Josh Smoker↔ PIT 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.1 -0.0
Zach McAllister↔ CLE 30 FA-elig 30.0 0.2 -0.1
Grayson Greiner 25 – 30-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Shane Greene 29 arb 66-0.0 1.9 -2.1
Matt Hall 24 – 5-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Mikie Mahtook 28 arb 67-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Jacob Turner↔ MIA 27 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.4 -0.8
James Adduci 33 – 59-0.1 – –
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 33 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Sandy Báez 24 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Zac Reininger 25 pre-arb 18-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Ronny Rodríguez 26 – 62-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Johnny Barbato 25 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.5 -1.7
Ryan Carpenter 27 – 6-0.4 0.2 -1.7
Dawel Lugo 23 – 27-0.5 0.1 -1.8
Warwick Saupold 28 pre-arb 31-0.5 0.6 -2.4
James McCann 28 arb 118-0.6 2.4 -4.3
Mike Gerber 25 pre-arb 18-0.7 0.1 -2.4
Dixon Machado 26 arb 67-0.8 0.6 -3.1
Victor Reyes 23 pre-arb 100-1.3 0.5 -5.1
Victor Martinez 39 FA-elig 133-1.6 18.0 -23.6

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Niko Goodrum1.8
Mike Fiers1.3
Leonys Martin1.3
Spencer Turnbull0.5
Francisco Liriano0.4
Pete Kozma0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Justin Upton3.8
Ian Kinsler2.5
J.D. Martinez1.7
Alex Avila1.3
Justin Wilson0.9
Alex Presley0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$113.3M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Miguel Cabrera3514.101$30.0MFREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann328.154$24.0MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez3914.114$18.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Fiers337.000$4.1MFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano3411.104$4.0MFREE AGENT
Zach McAllister307.000$167kFREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia339.063$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Jose Iglesias285.036$6.3MFREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos264.029$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
James McCann283.028$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Greene293.075$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wilson314.038$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonys Martin304.161$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Stumpf273.037$552kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Coleman324.018$416kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Turner274.033$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Kozma303.049$120kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Adduci335.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Blaine Hardy312.130$795kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Fulmer251.157$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd271.136$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Norris252.073$561kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mikie Mahtook282.011$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buck Farmer271.083$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dixon Machado261.075$554kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew VerHagen271.149$551kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Hicks281.001$551kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Warwick Saupold281.035$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JaCoby Jones260.125$549kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Barbato251.008$549kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeimer Candelario240.056$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Jiménez230.077$547kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Reyes230.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Niko Goodrum260.031$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Artie Lewicki260.029$319kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Rodríguez260.000$314kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grayson Greiner250.000$296kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Alcántara250.027$231kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Carpenter27–$211k
Zac Reininger250.039$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dawel Lugo230.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy Báez240.031$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Hall240.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Gerber250.051$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Smoker292.000$71kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christin Stewart240.000$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Turnbull250.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Bell290.129$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harold Castro240.000$29kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Tigers 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.