DET⇄ANA

DETDET Al Avila net +$4.0M net +0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2016 odds 38% → 33% (-4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kody Eaves2B·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#507 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Billy Eppler net −$4.0M net -0.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $28M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.2 ± 4 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2016 odds 2% → 2% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jefry Marte1B·25y·R/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.