NYY⇄TBR

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$12.8M net +3.0

received +$23.2M+$23.2M ± $40M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 6.2 ± 5 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2025 odds 84% → 88% (+4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CaballeroSS·28y·R/R

+$23.4M+$23.4M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 6.2± 5 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.31/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$12.8M net -3.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $21M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2025 odds 11% → 8% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Everson PereiraOF·24y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

Composite #67.0 pedigree (Baseball America #67 (2024)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.