MIN⇄TBR

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$16.8M net +1.3

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $42M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 4.7 ± 5 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Taj BradleyP·24y·R/R

+$32.3M+$32.3M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 4.7± 5 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

Composite #32.0 pedigree (Baseball America #44 (2023) / MLB Pipeline #20 (2023)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.93/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$16.8M net -1.3

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $21M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 2.9 ± 3 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Griffin JaxP·30y·R/R

+$11.2M+$11.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 2.9± 3 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.