TBR⇄DET

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$1.6M net +0.4

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $16M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2025 odds 7% → 8% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mason EnglertP·25y·S/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#119 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Scott Harris net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2025 odds 30% → 27% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.