RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.18× league · TAB -3.8
-3.8TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+3.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
44%dead money %21st/30
0.543win %13th/30
32.5roster fWAR15th/30
-43surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$155Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFHarrison Bader 74GTyler O'Neill 3GYairo Muñoz 3G
LFMarcell Ozuna 147GTyler O'Neill 16GHarrison Bader 6G
RFDexter Fowler 75GJosé A. Martínez 46GHarrison Bader 38G
SSPaul DeJong 114GYairo Muñoz 40GGreg Garcia 17G
2BKolten Wong 119GGreg Garcia 31GYairo Muñoz 26G
3BJedd Gyorko 96GMatt Carpenter 76GYairo Muñoz 24G
1BMatt Carpenter 95GJosé A. Martínez 84GMatt Adams 63G
STARTERSMiles Mikolas 4.5WARCarlos Martinez 2.4WARJack Flaherty 2.4WARLuke Weaver 1.4WARJohn Gant 1.1WAR
CYadier Molina 121GFrancisco Peña 56GCarson Kelly 16G
DHJosé A. Martínez 8GMatt Carpenter 2G
BULLPEN★ Bud Norris 28svJordan Hicks 24hTyler Lyons 9hChasen Shreve 6hMike Mayers 6hJohn Brebbia 5hDominic Leone 5hBrett Cecil 0h
CYadier Molina 121 · Francisco Peña 56 · Carson Kelly 16
1BMatt Carpenter 95 · José A. Martínez 84 · Matt Adams 63
2BKolten Wong 119 · Greg Garcia 31 · Yairo Muñoz 26
3BJedd Gyorko 96 · Matt Carpenter 76 · Yairo Muñoz 24
SSPaul DeJong 114 · Yairo Muñoz 40 · Greg Garcia 17
LFMarcell Ozuna 147 · Tyler O'Neill 16 · Harrison Bader 6
CFHarrison Bader 74 · Tyler O'Neill 3 · Yairo Muñoz 3
RFDexter Fowler 75 · José A. Martínez 46 · Harrison Bader 38
DHJosé A. Martínez 8 · Matt Carpenter 2
SPMiles Mikolas 4.5 · Carlos Martinez 2.4 · Jack Flaherty 2.4 · Luke Weaver 1.4 · John Gant 1.1
BP★ Bud Norris 28 · Jordan Hicks 24 · Tyler Lyons 9 · Chasen Shreve 6 · Mike Mayers 6 · John Brebbia 5 · Dominic Leone 5 · Brett Cecil 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Miles Mikolas 29 FA-elig 344.5 7.5 +8.0
Matt Carpenter 32 FA-elig 1564.1 13.8 +0.3
Harrison Bader 24 pre-arb 1383.7 0.5 +12.0
Yadier Molina 35 FA-elig 1232.7 20.0 -10.6
Carlos Martinez 26 arb 342.4 11.7 -3.4
Jack Flaherty 22 pre-arb 312.4 0.5 +7.6
Marcell Ozuna 27 arb 1481.9 9.0 -2.6
Kolten Wong 27 arb 1271.8 4.0 +2.1
José A. Martínez 29 pre-arb 1521.8 0.6 +5.5
Jedd Gyorko 29 arb 1251.6 9.0 -3.5
Luke Weaver 24 pre-arb 341.4 0.6 +4.1
Paul DeJong 24 pre-arb 1151.3 1.2 +3.3
John Gant 25 pre-arb 281.1 0.4 +3.4
Tyler O'Neill 23 – 611.1 0.3 +3.3
Tommy Pham↔ TBR 30 arb 981.0 0.4 +3.0
Austin Gomber 24 – 290.9 0.3 +2.7
Daniel Ponce de Leon 26 – 120.7 0.2 +2.2
Michael Wacha 26 arb 150.7 5.3 -3.0
John Brebbia 28 pre-arb 450.6 0.4 +1.8
Tyson Ross↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 90.6 0.5 +1.5
Jordan Hicks 21 pre-arb 730.4 0.5 +1.0
Adam Wainwright 36 FA-elig 80.4 19.5 -18.1
Mike Mayers 26 pre-arb 500.3 0.5 +0.5
Patrick Wisdom 26 – 320.3 0.1 +0.8
Dominic Leone 26 pre-arb 300.2 1.1 -0.5
Bud Norris 33 FA-elig 640.1 3.0 -2.5
Dakota Hudson 23 – 260.1 0.2 +0.1
Tyler Webb↔ SDP 27 pre-arb 180.1 0.1 +0.1
Luke Voit↔ NYY 27 – 80.1 0.0 +0.2
Sam Tuivailala↔ SEA 25 arb 310.0 0.5 -0.3
Giovanny Gallegos↔ NYY 26 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Alex Reyes 23 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.5
Edmundo Sosa 22 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Greg Holland↔ WSN 32 FA-elig 32-0.0 8.0 -8.0
Yairo Muñoz 23 pre-arb 108-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Steven Baron 27 – 2-0.1 – –
Luke Gregerson 34 FA-elig 17-0.1 5.0 -5.3
Ryan Sherriff 28 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Matt Bowman 27 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Preston Guilmet↔ TOR 30 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Tyler Lyons 30 arb 27-0.2 1.2 -1.8
Greg Garcia 28 arb 114-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Chasen Shreve↔ NYY 27 arb 20-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Adolis García 25 – 21-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Carson Kelly 23 pre-arb 19-0.5 0.2 -1.9
Matt Adams↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 27-0.6 0.9 -2.8
Brett Cecil 31 FA-elig 40-0.7 7.8 -10.0
Francisco Peña 28 arb 58-1.1 0.7 -4.5
Dexter Fowler 32 FA-elig 90-1.5 16.5 -21.8

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Miles Mikolas4.5
Marcell Ozuna1.9
Tyler O'Neill1.1
Austin Gomber0.9
Daniel Ponce de Leon0.7
Tyson Ross0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Trevor Rosenthal1.6
Randal Grichuk1.4
Lance Lynn1.0
Stephen Piscotty0.7
Aledmys Díaz0.4
Juan Nicasio0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$154.6M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Yadier Molina3513.123$20.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright3612.027$19.5MFREE AGENT
Dexter Fowler328.168$16.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter326.012$13.8MFREE AGENT
Greg Holland326.028$8.0MFREE AGENT
Brett Cecil317.152$7.8MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson349.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Bud Norris338.068$3.0MFREE AGENT
Tyson Ross316.118$463kFREE AGENT
Adolis García256.095$120kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Carlos Martinez264.073$11.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jedd Gyorko294.164$9.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna274.124$9.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Wacha264.062$5.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolten Wong274.045$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Lyons303.070$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Adams295.033$893kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Miles Mikolas291.037$7.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul DeJong240.124$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Leone262.123$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Peña281.009$650kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Garcia282.083$570kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman272.000$566kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Martínez292.000$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Weaver240.112$551kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Reyes231.055$546kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks210.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty220.031$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mayers260.038$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yairo Muñoz230.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Bader240.038$530kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Tuivailala251.082$478kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham302.107$408kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gant251.047$375kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Brebbia280.128$368kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Gomber240.000$322kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill230.000$296kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Shreve272.167$275kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dakota Hudson230.000$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Ponce de Leon26–$179k
Carson Kelly230.102$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom260.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Webb270.026$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sherriff280.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Voit270.093$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edmundo Sosa220.000$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Guilmet300.079$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanny Gallegos260.062$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Baron27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.